重启国债买卖基础再度夯实

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market's performance was mainly influenced by changes in the capital market and the stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The central bank's actions to smooth out liquidity fluctuations sent a positive signal, while the strong performance of the equity market led to weaker long - term bond performance in the second half of the week. Short - duration assets with better defensive properties performed relatively well [3][96]. - The traditional factors such as fundamentals, liquidity, fiscal supply, and external shocks may not be the main constraints for the bond market to show "seasonal weakness" in the third quarter. Currently, the loose liquidity pattern and the central bank's decision to cancel the freeze on bond repurchase collateral may revitalize more bonds and provide a better foundation for restarting treasury bond trading. The bond market may maintain a volatile and relatively strong situation with "less downward resistance and more upward pressure" [3][98]. - With the implementation of the insurance's predetermined interest rate cut, the allocation motivation of insurance funds is expected to further increase, which may be an important force driving the bond market to rise. In terms of strategies, an investment portfolio of "short - credit + long - term local bonds" can be considered. For trading, the current 10 - year (250011) and 30 - year (2500002) treasury bond active bonds can be selected as the main trading targets [3][99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On July 14, the central bank announced a 1400 - billion - yuan open - market outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan in July, and the balance of outright reverse repurchases after deducting maturities was 4.8 trillion yuan [6]. - On July 14, the central bank official mentioned that small and medium - sized banks' bond investment should maintain a reasonable "degree" [9]. - On July 16, it was announced that China's GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries growing at 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively [9]. - On July 19, the central bank drafted a decision to modify some regulations, including clarifying the legal status of Shanghai Clearing House, canceling the freeze on bond repurchase collateral, and modifying information disclosure regulations for financial bonds [12]. - From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [13]. - On July 19, it was reported that China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established to promote the construction of a 1.2 - trillion - yuan hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River [16]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From July 14 - 18, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 130.11 billion yuan. From July 21 - 25, it is expected that 204.68 billion yuan of base currency will mature and be withdrawn [17][18]. - During the tax period last week, the central bank's actions led to a change in the capital market from tight to loose. As of July 11, compared with July 4, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by 3.88BP, 0.86BP, 2.81BP, and 0.58BP respectively [22]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situation - In the primary market, last week, CDs ended three consecutive weeks of net outflows, with a net financing of 144.37 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest CD issuance scale, with a net financing of 64.84 billion yuan [24][28]. - Affected by the tax period, the average issuance rate of 1 - year CDs of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by about 2.94BP compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, due to the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, short - duration assets were more defensive, and CD yields were generally declining [30][34]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - On July 14, the 4th and 5th ultra - long - term special treasury bonds were issued, with marginal interest rates of 1.92% and 1.9% respectively. The net financing rhythm of local government bonds was slower than that of treasury bonds. As of July 18, the cumulative net financing of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 3.83 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 4.70 trillion yuan. The supply of local government bonds in the third quarter may be postponed [36][37]. - Last week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased. The total net financing of interest - rate bonds was 200.565 billion yuan, with treasury bonds at 58.15 billion yuan, local bonds at 207.795 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds at - 65.38 billion yuan [45]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 1.83 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities [47]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The central bank's actions eased the tight capital market, but the stock - bond "seesaw" effect made short - rate bonds perform better, and the term spread widened. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 2.12BP, - 1.15BP, - 0.36BP, - 1.10BP, - 0.01BP, and 1.44BP respectively [50]. - The liquidity premium between the active and sub - active 10 - year treasury and policy - bank bonds narrowed. The long - and ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spread narrowed, mainly due to the increase in long - term treasury bond supply [58][66]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale decreased due to the tax period, with an average of about 7.24 trillion yuan. Rural commercial banks, funds, and insurance were the top three buyers in the interest - rate bond market. Rural commercial banks preferred defensive assets within 10 years, funds implemented a "dumbbell strategy", and insurance increased the allocation of long - term local bonds [67][81]. - In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.46%, with commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions at about 110.53%, 183.89%, and 131.06% respectively [67]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures increased by 0.92% week - on - week, wire rod futures decreased by 4.29%, cathode copper futures decreased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 2.10%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 4.44%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.77%, and the BDI index increased by 42.66%. The pork wholesale price increased by 0.63%, and the vegetable wholesale price increased by 0.23%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.76%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.23%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.15 [91][95].