棕榈油周报：生柴政策预期提振，棕榈油强势上涨-20250721

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 141 to close at 4,316 ringgit/ton, a 3.38% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 282 to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 174 to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, a 2.18% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 147 to close at 9,586 yuan/ton, a 1.56% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 2.01 to close at 55.58 cents/pound, a 3.75% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 15.9 to close at 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.33% increase [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. In the biodiesel sector, Indonesia's B40 policy is being gradually implemented, and its domestic B50 plan is in the testing and research phase, expected to be fully implemented in January 2026, leading to high bullish sentiment among funds and a significant increase in palm oil prices. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy will exacerbate the tight supply expectation of US soybean oil, resulting in a relatively obvious increase, and the domestic market is driven by this, with soybean oil performing stronger than rapeseed oil [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US retail and employment data are strong, the inflation data are generally moderate, the impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected, the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has cooled, and the US dollar closed higher at a weekly low. In China, the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the bullish atmosphere, and commodity prices have generally increased. Fundamentally, it is currently the production - increasing season, with both supply and demand increasing. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, increasing the demand for biodiesel, and the upcoming B50 policy will exacerbate the tight supply - demand pattern. The US's unexpected biodiesel target will also exacerbate the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the price data of various oil and fat contracts on July 18 and July 11, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, etc., as well as their price changes and percentage changes [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose last week, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B40 and the upcoming B50) and the US biodiesel policy are the main factors driving the price increases [6]. - From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06%, but its export volume decreased according to different survey agencies. The export tax of Malaysian palm oil in August will increase from 8.5% in July to 9% [7][8]. - As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters. India's palm oil import volume in June increased by 60% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% [8]. Industry News - Indonesia expects its palm oil tax revenue this year to reach 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.84 billion), and plans to replant 50,000 hectares of palm plantations this year, lower than the target of 180,000 hectares [11]. - According to a report, global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025, reaching $1,200/ton, due to supply tightening in Indonesia and Malaysia and increased global demand driven by biodiesel policies [11]. - AI is being used in the Malaysian palm oil industry, improving the oil extraction rate by 0.1%, increasing the normal operation time of the factory by 5 - 10%, and reducing the dependence on manual labor by 45% [12]. - India aims to increase its domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [12]. - UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that Malaysia's palm oil exports may increase in July, production is expected to increase, and inventory may remain stable [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][39][42]