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Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-21 03:12
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound due to the continuous boost of the anti - involution policy. The photovoltaic mid - and downstream sectors have entered a collective production cut rhythm, and the release rate of new upstream silicon material production capacity has significantly slowed down. The supply side is in a state of passive contraction, while the demand side is weak, and the industrial silicon spot price shows an oscillating upward trend. Technically, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillating upward trend in the short term [2][6][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the industrial silicon主力 contract price rose from 8415.00 yuan/ton to 8695.00 yuan/ton, with a increase of 3.33%. The prices of various spot grades also generally increased, except for the unchanged price of polysilicon dense material. The industrial silicon social inventory decreased from 55.1 tons to 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.73% [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.1%. In the first half of the year, China's goods trade export volume reached 13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Exports to emerging markets grew rapidly, and high - tech product exports increased by 9.2% [7] - Supply - side: As of July 18th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas was 235, and the overall open furnace rate slightly rose to 29.8%. The open furnace rate in Xinjiang has dropped below 50%, and the increase in the open furnace rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season is limited. The production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is under pressure [7][8][10] - Demand - side: Polysilicon prices continue to rise due to cost increases, but there are no new orders for high - priced products. Silicon wafer companies have large differences in quotes, and high - level transactions are limited. Photovoltaic cells have the motivation to increase prices, but the overall increase in TOPCON cells is small. The component market has low terminal acceptance, and the demand for distributed projects has shrunk significantly in early Q3. Under the implementation of the anti - involution policy, the demand in the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a downward cycle [2][6][8] - Inventory - aspect: As of July 18th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,400 lots, equivalent to 252,000 tons. After the new regulations on delivery standards were introduced, the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened [9] Industry News - On July 9th, the General Administration of Market Supervision and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on promoting the development of new energy through metrology from 2025 - 2030, including research and application demonstrations of key common metrology technologies in multiple new energy fields [11] - Driven by policies, there has been a boom in photovoltaic installations in Zhejiang Province this year. In the first half of the year, the new installed capacity was 12.2 million kilowatts. On July 3rd, the maximum photovoltaic output in the province reached 37.61 million kilowatts, a record high. The province is also accelerating the construction of supporting facilities and exploring "photovoltaic +" scenarios [12] Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production of main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products [14][15][16][17][18][19]