锌周报：稳增长情绪发酵，锌价震荡偏强-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, the moderate rebound of inflation and the better - than - expected retail data in the US highlighted economic resilience. Domestically, the good performance of H1 GDP was offset by concerns about insufficient policy stimulus in H2. The statement of optimizing supply by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18th ignited market enthusiasm [3][4][11]. - Fundamentally, domestic refinery production increased, with stable operation of new projects, slowdown in processing fee growth, good refinery profits, and sufficient raw materials. The supply was on the rise. The zinc market remained stronger overseas than in China, and imports were difficult to increase. In the demand side, it was the off - season for consumption, and the actual demand was weak. The galvanized plate consumption confidence was boosted, but the actual order increment was limited. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide were weak. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the spot premium further declined, while the inventory accumulation slowed down [4]. - Overall, the domestic and foreign macro - environment was moderately positive, and the fundamentals were weak. The market hoped that the supply optimization could improve the surplus situation of the zinc market. In the short term, the zinc price was mainly influenced by macro and policy expectations, and the futures price was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, it was still unclear how the supply optimization policy would affect the zinc industry chain, so caution was needed when chasing up the price [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE zinc decreased from 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th to 22295 yuan/ton on July 18th, a decline of 85 yuan/ton. LME zinc increased from 2738 dollars/ton to 2824 dollars/ton, an increase of 86 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.17 to 7.89, a decline of 0.28. The SHFE inventory increased by 4649 tons to 54630 tons, the LME inventory increased by 13850 tons to 119100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 60 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2509 first declined and then rebounded. Supported by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the black - series prices rose, which was beneficial to the zinc price. It found support around 22000 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly, closing at 22295 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LME zinc price stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2824 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.14% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream procurement motivation weakened, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc prices and premiums varied in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangdong, and Tianjin [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of July 18th, the LME zinc inventory was 119100 tons, an increase of 13850 tons from last week. The SHFE inventory was 54630 tons, an increase of 4649 tons. As of July 17th, the social inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10th. The inventory in Guangdong and Tianjin increased significantly, while that in Shanghai decreased slightly [8]. - In the macro - aspect, in the US, the CPI in June increased moderately, the core CPI was lower than expected, the PPI reached a new low, and the retail sales exceeded expectations. There were also various international trade and policy news, such as Trump's tariff - related statements and trade negotiations among countries. In China, the H1 GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries were about to be introduced [8][9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 18th, the average weekly TC of domestic Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 7.27 dollars/dry ton to 73.75 dollars/dry ton. Excellon Resources was preparing to restart the production of the Mallay silver - lead - zinc mine in Peru next year, which had produced 6 million ounces of silver, 45 million pounds of zinc, and 35 million pounds of lead from 2012 to 2018 [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, the spot premium, the LME premium, the inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, the processing fees of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the import profit and loss of zinc mines, the domestic refined zinc production, the smelter profit, the net import of refined zinc, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [14][16][17].