贵金属周报：避险情绪升温，金银预计偏强-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the international gold price showed a volatile trend, while the silver price fell after hitting a record high. The negotiation between the US and other trading countries still has risks, and the rumor of the change of the Fed Chairman is intensifying. The market is worried about the risk of a sudden shift in the Fed's monetary policy. However, the US economic data remains resilient, and the continuous rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the precious metal prices. The silver price adjusted due to profit - taking by some funds after reaching a record high of $39.57 per ounce [4][7]. - On Wednesday last week, the media reported that Trump was considering removing Fed Chairman Powell because of a $2.5 - billion cost overrun in the Fed building renovation project. Although Trump denied that he would immediately fire Powell, he did not clearly rule out this possibility, which triggered market speculation and concern. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the selection process for the next Fed Chairman has officially started and called on Powell to resign as a director after leaving the chairmanship [7]. - Fed Governor Waller has become the main internal candidate to replace Powell as chairman, especially considering his clear support for interest rate cuts this year. Waller said that if nominated, he would accept the position [8]. - As the August 1st deadline approaches, the negotiations between many countries and the US are in a tense sprint. Trump plans to impose 10% or 15% tariffs on more than 150 countries, and the US is expected to maintain a 25% tariff on Japan and may soon reach an agreement with India [8]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity increased slightly. Uncertainty remains high, causing businesses to remain cautious. Tourism activities fluctuated, manufacturing activities declined slightly, and non - financial service activities remained almost unchanged on average, but there were differences among regions. The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic [8]. - The intensifying rumor of the change of the Fed Chairman has triggered market concerns about the stability of monetary policy. As the tariff game between the US and other trading countries will become more intense as August 1st approaches, it is expected that the precious metal prices will show a volatile and upward - biased trend [4][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate/% | Total Trading Volume/Hands | Total Open Interest/Hands | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 777.02 | 3.46 | 0.45 | 202287 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 773.37 | - 2.76 | - 0.36 | 24176 | 204452 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3355.50 | - 14.80 | - 0.44 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9273 | 233 | 2.58 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9211 | 27 | 0.29 | 403720 | 3407420 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.43 | - 0.65 | - 1.66 | | | US dollars/ounce | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price showed a volatile trend last week, and the silver price fell after hitting a record high. The US - trade negotiation risks and the Fed Chairman change rumor led to market concerns about the sudden shift of the Fed's monetary policy. The resilient US economic data and the rebound of the US dollar index suppressed the precious metal prices. The silver price adjusted due to profit - taking [7]. - The rumor of Trump considering removing Powell and the start of the selection process for the next Fed Chairman have increased market uncertainty. Waller is a potential candidate for the Fed Chairman position [7][8]. - As the August 1st deadline approaches, the tariff game between the US and other countries will intensify, and it is expected that the precious metal prices will be volatile and upward - biased [8]. - This week, focus on the preliminary value of the European July PMI and the preliminary value of the US June durable goods orders month - on - month. Also, pay attention to Powell's speech and the progress of US - foreign trade negotiations [9]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predict that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September and cut interest rates nearly twice by the end of the year [10]. - The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the May data was revised up to a 0.3% increase. It had the most moderate annual increase since last September, rising 2.3% year - on - year. The core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services was also flat, rising 2.5% year - on - year, the smallest increase since the end of 2023 [10]. - The US June retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%, and the previous value was a 0.9% decrease. Retail sales rebounded strongly, mainly driven by automobile sales [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7000 to 221,000, the fifth consecutive weekly decline, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the job market [10]. - The preliminary value of the US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 61.8, a five - month high. The 5 - year inflation expectation preliminary value was 3.6%, a five - month low [11]. - Japan's June core CPI fell back to 3.3% year - on - year but has exceeded the central bank's 2% target for 39 consecutive months. The "core - core" CPI, which is more concerned by the Bank of Japan, actually rose to 3.4%, indicating that potential inflationary pressure still exists [11]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, the inventory changes of COMEX gold and silver, the non - commercial position changes of gold and silver futures, the price differences between domestic and foreign markets, and the relationships between gold prices and various factors such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [12][13][14][17][18][23][25][27][29][32][34]