豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250721

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Bean Meal, Soybean Oil Futures Variety Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: July 21 - July 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Bean Meal Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [7] - Trend Logic: In the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. Bean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons or 7.76% from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals and hot weather keep oil mills at high operating rates. Downstream feed enterprises adopt a strategy of appropriate low - price purchases, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. However, favorable US soybean export policies and high Brazilian soybean premiums drive up import costs. There is also significant uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations. Overall, bean meal futures are expected to continue wide - range oscillations [7] - Mid - term Strategy: Pay attention to the support level in the range of 2920 - 2950 [7] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was in a sideways phase, with strongly bearish funds. M2509 was expected to continue oscillating, with an expected operating range of 2880 - 3080 [10] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is in an upward channel, with strongly bullish funds. M2509 is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2920 - 3150 [11] 2.3 Variety Diagnosis - Bull - Bear Flow: The main force is strongly bullish, with an indicator of 94.7 [15] - Fund Energy: Funds are basically stable, with an indicator of - 16.7 [15] - Bull - Bear Disagreement: There is a high risk of a market reversal, with an indicator of 99.5 [15] 2.4 Related Data - Data includes bean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [20][22][25] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [31] - Trend Logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 28th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 436,100 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0494 million tons, an increase of 297,000 tons from the previous week. High soybean arrivals and high crushing volumes, combined with the off - season of terminal consumption, result in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the soybean oil market. However, competing oils such as palm oil are relatively strong. The expected consumption increase from biodiesel policies and the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums provide cost - side support. Overall, soybean oil futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation and consolidation phase [31] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a sideways phase, with relatively bearish funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain wide - range oscillation and consolidation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7800 - 8100 [34] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with relatively bullish funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain a bullish operation in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7950 - 8300 [34] 3.3 Related Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][44][48]