COMEX铜库存持续增加，沪铜或震荡偏强运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend [3][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures Prices: Last week, the price of the main contract AL2508 of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between around 77,700 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 78,580 yuan/ton. The LME copper futures price also showed a fluctuating trend, with the contract price ranging from 9,575 - 9,720 US dollars/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 77,990 yuan/ton, 77,940 yuan/ton, 78,090 yuan/ton, and 78,050 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around an increase of 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Refined Copper Production: As of July 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.23 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.32 cents/pound. As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [21]. - Automobile Production: As of June 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of May 2025, the monthly automobile production in China was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [26]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - Global Visible Inventory: As of July 18, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 84,556 tons, an increase of 3,094 tons from the previous week. As of July 17, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 122,150 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.52%. As of July 17, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 2,379 tons from the previous trading day. - Domestic Invisible Inventory: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 24,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [31]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, with the economy operating generally smoothly. The national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the national industrial producer price decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In June, it decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The contradiction between the Federal Reserve and the US government has intensified, and the policy shift during the last year of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is worthy of attention. The copper smelting processing fee is stable but still at a historical low. Refined copper production continues to grow rapidly. The year - on - year growth rate of copper product output has accelerated, automobile production continues to increase year - on - year, and copper consumption remains strong. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [2][41].