Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.45%, and it increased by 1.3% during the night session on Friday [4] - The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week last week. The steel mill inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the social inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. The "anti-involution" supports steel prices, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate stronger [5][34] - It is recommended to take a bullish approach with low-level fluctuations [6][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Analysis - Futures Price: No specific data provided [7] - Spot Price: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [13] - Basis and Spread: No specific data provided [14] Important Market Information - On July 15, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association proposed suggestions at the meeting, including controlling increments, optimizing stocks, promoting mergers and reorganizations, and ensuring smooth exits. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust structures and eliminate backward production capacity [17] - Canada will expand the scope of import steel tariff quotas and tighten existing quotas from August 1, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce believes this violates WTO rules [18] Supply - side Situation - No specific data provided [19] Demand - side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [25] Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%; the steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons [34] - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8151 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 346,200 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3876 million tons, an increase of 96,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 193,200 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 323,000 tons [34] 后市 Outlook - The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week last week. The steel mill inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the social inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. The "anti-involution" supports steel prices, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate stronger [5][34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach with low-level fluctuations [6][35]
华龙期货螺纹周报-20250721
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-07-21 03:48