Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic edible oils oscillated upwards driven by the overall strength of commodities. In the short - term, domestic edible oils may continue to oscillate strongly, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The Y2509 soybean oil contract rose 2.18% to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 3.25% to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.56% to close at 9,586 yuan/ton [5][28]. - In August, Malaysia's reference price for crude palm oil was 3,864.12 ringgit/ton (about 910.28 US dollars), up significantly from July, and the export tax will increase from 8.5% in July to 9%. The Malaysian palm oil rose 3.38% [6][28]. - In the 2024/25 season, Argentina's soybean production reached 49.9 million tons, a 3.5% increase from the previous year, and the planting area expanded by 7.7%. The US soybean rose 2.73% this week [7][29]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,300 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,670 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 11, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 37,000 tons to 1.138 million tons. On July 16, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 21,000 tons to 545,000 tons [15]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [18]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 140 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 6 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20]. - As of July 18, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 84 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils oscillated upwards. The futures prices of edible oils mostly follow external and capital fluctuations. Currently, the producing areas are in the seasonal production - increasing season, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is likely to increase. However, Indonesia's demand for biodiesel is continuously improving, and the increase in palm oil inventory at a low level is expected to be slow. The soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly, and there is still room for further accumulation [28][29].
市场转暖，油脂震荡上扬
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-07-21 03:53