财达期货铜周报：铜价短期走强为主-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current off - season characteristics of the copper market's fundamentals are still obvious, and macro - policies dominate the copper price trend. Domestic anti - involution and key industry growth - stabilizing policies drive the short - term strengthening of copper prices. The Trump 232 tariff policy currently has limited impact on domestic copper prices, but subsequent macro uncertainties need attention [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Supply and Demand - The copper concentrate processing fee TC remains in the negative range, at a historically extremely low level. Downstream cable orders have not improved significantly. The short - term start - up of copper rods in the processing link has rebounded but is lower than the seasonal level of last year. Due to the decline in copper prices, the order volume of downstream enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has risen to 77.22%. However, downstream consumption is not optimistic as the increase in the operating rate is mainly due to the resumption of production after previous shutdowns. The machine - operating rate of the enameled wire industry has decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 80.8%, and the newly received order volume has decreased by 0.37 percentage points, mainly affected by the off - season of home appliance consumption. The spot market of copper concentrate has seen few transactions this week. After the price decline, although the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved, overall, it is still mainly for rigid demand due to the off - season [4] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly higher than market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a growth - stabilizing work plan for ten key industries, which will promote these industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. On Friday night, copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel all rose by more than 1%. The US overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. The US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, far higher than the market - expected 0.1%. As the impact of tariffs is passed on to consumer prices, Fed officials have different opinions on interest rate cuts [4] 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed weak and volatile trends at the beginning of the week. Affected by macro factors, it strengthened at the night session on Friday, recovering the decline at the beginning of the week. The closing price of 78,410 yuan/ton was basically the same as that of the previous Friday [6]