申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to fluctuate while silver shows relative strength. The US retail sales monthly rate increased by 0.6%, far exceeding the expected 0.1%. There were rumors that Trump considered firing Powell, which he later denied, but the Trump administration tried to influence market expectations through potential new Fed chair candidates. The US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year in June, the largest increase this year, cooling short - term rate - cut expectations. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for major trading countries, but there is a risk of the final tariff threat being partially realized. With good economic data recently, the expectation of the Fed's early rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized and rebounded. Although the impact of the tariff policy shown by US data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is boosted by industrial products and shows relative strength. Recently, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Precious Metals Futures: For gold futures, the current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.60 and 779.14 respectively, with price increases of 0.64 and 0.76, and price increase rates of 0.08% and 0.10%. For silver futures, the current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9246.00 and 9292.00 respectively, with price increases of 106.00 and price increase rates of 1.16% and 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract are also provided [2]. - Related Indices and Assets: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. Spot Market - Precious Metals Spot: The current prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London gold, and London silver are given, along with their price changes and price change rates. The price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.28 with a decline rate of - 0.17%, London gold decreased by 1.24 with a decline rate of - 0.16%, and London silver increased by 0.28 with an increase rate of 0.75% [2]. - Price Spreads: The current values of spreads such as沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai gold/London gold, and Shanghai silver/London silver are provided, as well as their previous values [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of precious metals in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, etc. are given. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms, the silver inventory increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 493,426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Derivatives - The current positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators' net positions in gold and silver are provided. The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF positions both increased by 1.00 ton to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position in gold decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macroeconomic News - The US Treasury Secretary Bentsen privately advised Trump not to fire Fed Chairman Powell, warning of economic, political, and legal consequences. Trump said he didn't need anyone to explain the pros and cons. Ukraine has invited Russia to hold a new round of negotiations this week, with the negotiation date to be determined, and Istanbul will be the location for the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation [3].