申银万国期货早间策略-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is beneficial to reducing stock market volatility. In the medium - to long - term, A - shares are considered to have a high investment cost - performance ratio. Specifically, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are expected to bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the increase ranging from 22.20 to 36.40. The trading volume of IF next - quarter contracts was the highest at 59,958.00, and the position of IF current - month contracts decreased by 23,303.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The prices of IH contracts also rose, with an increase of 17.80 - 28.80. The trading volume of IH next - quarter contracts was 35,272.00, and the position of IH current - month contracts decreased by 12,236.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The prices of IC contracts increased, with an increase of 8.60 - 28.80. The trading volume of IC next - quarter contracts was 41,183.00, and the position of IC current - month contracts decreased by 19,812.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The prices of IM contracts went up, with an increase of 9.60 - 32.00. The trading volume of IM next - quarter contracts was 104,691.00, and the position of IM current - month contracts decreased by 28,897.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all changed compared to the previous values [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all rose, with the SSE 50 having the highest increase of 0.74%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index also changed [1] - Industry Indexes: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the raw materials industry had the highest increase of 2.73%, while the information technology industry decreased by 0.33% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different terms changed compared to the previous two days' values [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.50% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.33%, while the Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Indexes all decreased [1] 3.5 Macro Information - 16 central enterprises signed 75 industrial project investment agreements with the Tibet Autonomous Region, with a total investment of 317.537 billion yuan, focusing on key areas such as clean energy and infrastructure [2] - In the first half of 2025, the main economic indicators in the industrial and information technology fields showed steady growth, and multiple policy measures will be taken to strengthen the industrial economy [2] - 9 provinces have released their H1 GDP data, with 4 provinces in central China outperforming the national average, and Hubei having the highest growth rate of 6.2% [2] - As of July 18, 1540 A - share listed companies disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, with a pre - happy ratio of about 43.77%, and the performance was quite differentiated [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The 3rd China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo closed in Beijing, with over 1200 exhibitors and more than 210,000 on - site and online visitors, a 5% increase from the previous session, and over 6000 cooperation agreements and intentions signed [2] - In H1 2025, the Beijing real estate market showed an upward trend, but the market heat was uneven, with some high - quality properties having high sales and others having low sales [2] - Hong Kong will implement a stablecoin regulatory system on August 1, aiming to promote the digitalization of payment infrastructure and asset markets [2]