港股、海外周观察：宽松叙事下，全球普涨、补涨

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is in an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index poised to break previous highs, supported by a bottoming out trend [1] - Domestic funds, particularly insurance capital, are considering increasing their positions, focusing on dividend stocks with potential for mid-year dividends and relatively low valuations [1][2] - There is a noticeable shift towards increasing allocations in technology and internet heavyweight stocks, which is expected to provide further momentum for the overall market [1][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. economy shows resilience, with June retail sales unexpectedly rising by 0.6%, reversing a two-month decline, particularly driven by a rebound in auto sales [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy expectations are shifting, with indications that a dovish successor to Powell could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, benefiting risk assets [2][3] - Trade policies are easing, with agreements reached to lower tariffs on Indonesian goods, which may reduce trade policy uncertainty [3] Group 3 - The report notes that the AI investment trend continues, with expectations for Q2 earnings per share (EPS) in the U.S. tech sector projected to grow by 4%-5%, increasing the likelihood of positive surprises [5] - Global stock ETF inflows accelerated, with U.S. stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of approximately $13.49 billion, significantly outpacing other markets [7][32] - The report emphasizes that while uncertainties remain, the U.S. stock market is expected to return to a trajectory driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience in the second half of the year [6]