甲醇周报：基本面改善有限，甲醇或偏弱震荡-20250721

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and the significant increase in port methanol inventory will suppress the upside potential of methanol. Methanol demand remains weak, and it is likely to trade in a weak range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review Last week, the fundamentals of methanol improved marginally, and methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol futures closed at 2,386 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous week. The port methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The traditional downstream demand in the port area was still weak, and the large inventory build - up in the port area suppressed the market, but macro factors and concentrated cargo rights provided support. The inland methanol market showed regional differentiation [12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,869,725 tons, a decrease of 30,003 tons. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.69%, a week - on - week drop of 1.58%. The loss of production capacity exceeded the recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [13]. - Downstream Demand: Overall, the downstream demand for methanol was stable. The capacity utilization rate of olefins increased slightly, that of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of glacial acetic acid decreased slightly, that of chlorides increased slightly, and that of formaldehyde decreased [15][17]. - Inventory: As of July 16, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week drop of 1.28%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 243,100 tons, an increase of 21,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 9.89%. The port sample inventory was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 9.92% [20][23]. - Profit: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples mostly declined. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol narrowed, and the loss of natural - gas - based methanol widened [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, it is expected that there will be more restarts than maintenance of methanol devices. China's methanol production is expected to be around 1.9349 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 85.57%, an increase from last week [30]. - Downstream Demand: The olefin industry's operation is expected to rise slightly, dimethyl ether's capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat, the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, that of formaldehyde is expected to decrease, and that of chlorides is expected to increase [31]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 366,300 tons, with a slight inventory build - up. The port methanol inventory is also expected to continue to increase. Overall, methanol demand remains weak, and it is likely to fluctuate in the short - term [33].