KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-07-21 05:12Investment Rating - Investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a supply contraction due to overselling of live pigs since June, leading to a potential increase in pig prices in Q3 2025. The average selling price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 2.28% month-on-month and down 21.99% year-on-year [4][15] - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, with the gross white price difference strengthening month-on-month. As of July 17, 2025, the gross white price difference was 4.71 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.45 yuan/kg compared to June, although lower than the same period in 2024 [5][27] - The industry is entering a critical supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise monthly [4][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Since June, the overselling of live pigs has intensified, leading to a supply contraction. The average price of live pigs in June 2025 was 14.28 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.28% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.99% [4][15] - The monitoring sample indicated a slaughter volume of 4.3168 million heads in June 2025, down 6.20% month-on-month but up 12.22% year-on-year [4][15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The gross white price difference has improved, indicating a stronger supply-demand balance. The national frozen product storage rate was 16.85%, down 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [5][27] - The industry is currently in a supply contraction phase, with expectations for the price center of live pigs to rise gradually [4][15] Company Performance - As of July 10, 2025, 12 listed pig farming companies reported a total of 16.1481 million heads sold in June, a year-on-year increase of 45.98% [6][34] - The average selling prices for major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with specific companies reporting the following prices: Muyuan Foods at 14.08 yuan/kg, Wens Foodstuff Group at 14.39 yuan/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.18 yuan/kg [7][41]