中辉期货热卷早报-20250721

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [3][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [8][9] - Coke: Bullish [10][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [14][17] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Sideways [18][21] Core Views of the Report - Multiple factors drive steel prices to continue rising, with rebar showing off-season characteristics and hot-rolled coil having a relatively stable fundamentals [4] - Iron ore prices are strong due to increased iron production, but rapid price increases compress profit margins, so chasing the rise is not advisable [8] - After the first round of coke price increases, there are expectations for further increases, and the market sentiment is positive [12] - Coking coal production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is improving, with downstream restocking boosting the market [16] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, and prices may face pressure in the medium term [20][21] Summary by Variety Steel - Rebar - View: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced capacity reduction in the steel industry, and the sharp rise in raw materials drives up steel prices. Rebar production and apparent demand continue to decline month-on-month, and total inventory rises slightly, showing off-season characteristics [4] - Operation: Iron production increases significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials. The market sentiment is strong, and it may continue to run strongly, with a price range of [3170, 3220] [1] - Hot-rolled coil - View: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, and the fundamentals are relatively stable with limited contradictions [4] - Operation: The market trades around factors such as macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production restriction policies. The sharp rise in raw materials also promotes the strong performance of steel, and it may maintain a strong operation in the short term, with a price range of [3350, 3400] [1] Iron Ore - View: Iron production increases significantly, supply and arrivals both increase, and inventories at ports and steel mills accumulate. Steel mills have good profits and strong production enthusiasm, driving up the price of iron ore. However, the rapid price increase compresses the profit margin on the futures market [8] - Operation: Short-term observation is recommended, and medium-term short positions can be considered, with a price range of [780, 820] [1][9] Coke - View: After the first round of price increases, there are expectations for further increases. Market rumors of production restrictions affect sentiment, and steel mill restocking makes the market more positive [12] - Operation: It may maintain a strong operation, with a price range of [1520, 1570] [1][13] Coking Coal - View: Domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching the level of the same period last year. Some coal mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot transactions have improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking boosts the market [16] - Operation: It may continue to run strongly in the short term, with a price range of [930, 970] [1][17] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese - View: The fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Although iron production is high, the significant month-on-month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for silicomanganese. The slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost [20] - Operation: In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the increase is relatively limited compared to other black commodities. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton, with a price range of [5710, 5900] [1][21] - Ferrosilicon - View: The fundamentals also show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, and there is obvious near-term warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter-month reverse arbitrage [20] - Operation: In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still face pressure, with a price range of [5410, 5605] [1][21]