格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20250721

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Despite the seasonal off - peak season for methanol downstream in July, with port inventory accumulation and minor de - stocking in production areas, and no obvious improvement in downstream demand, and large import pressure due to the restart of Iranian facilities, the short - term methanol price is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the range of 2350 - 2500 yuan/ton because of the positive commodity sentiment after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's statement on promoting the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the mainstream East China region fell 5 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 677 lots to 368,400 lots, and short positions increased by 18,001 lots to 483,800 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decline, and the overseas operating rate was 72.45%, a 1.3% month - on - month increase [2] - Inventory: The total port inventory of methanol in China was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China increased by 7,800 tons. The inventory of sample domestic methanol producers was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% month - on - month decline [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 243,100 tons, an increase of 21,900 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% month - on - month increase. The olefin operating rate was 86.23%, a 0.2% month - on - month increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged month - on - month; the methyl chloride operating rate was 71.27%, a 0.03% month - on - month increase; the acetic acid operating rate was 90.5%, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate was 43.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease [2] - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2] Market Logic - In July, the methanol downstream enters the seasonal off - peak season. The port inventory accumulates, and the production area has minor de - stocking. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. With the restart of Iranian facilities, the import pressure in July is still large. Considering the increasing number of domestic methanol facility overhauls in July, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The statement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18 led to a positive commodity sentiment, resulting in the short - term methanol price being oscillating and slightly bullish [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish trading strategy [2]