中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数上涨，碳酸锂、原油表现偏强-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, with the new Fed Chair nominee affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariff implementation in early August. The long - term weak - dollar pattern continues, and non - dollar assets are worth focusing on [6]. - China's Q2 economic data shows resilience, with export performance better than market expectations. The current pro - growth policies mainly focus on using existing resources, and the probability of incremental policies is higher in Q4. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities [6]. - The logic of policy - driven investment is strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policies in Q4 is higher. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected between October and December 2025. US tariff policies on other countries and China may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [6]. - Domestic Macro: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure work, and investment fundamentals have improved. As the Politburo meeting approaches, the market anticipates domestic - demand boosting policies. Currently, pro - growth policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [6]. - Asset Views: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to the details of "anti - involution" policies. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak - dollar pattern is expected, and strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial - Stock Index Futures: Positive expectations for "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate, with deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and attention should be paid to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. Shipping - For container shipping to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, as well as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The market is affected by macro factors and fluctuates at high levels. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - Iron Ore: Hot - metal production slightly rebounds, and the market fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: The first round of price increases is about to be implemented, and there are strong expectations for a second - round increase. Attention should be paid to steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Mongolian coal resumes customs clearance, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to steel production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Silicon Ferroalloy: Market sentiment cools, and prices decline weakly. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - Manganese Ferroalloy: Policy falls short of expectations, and the market fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - Glass: Market sentiment declines, and short - term fundamental contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - Soda Ash: Inventory continues to accumulate, and spot prices keep falling. Attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper pressures copper prices. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, Fed's hawkish stance, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - Alumina: The scale of warehouse - receipt registration needs to be observed, and the market declines. Attention should be paid to unexpected ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic - aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends [7]. - Aluminum: The inventory - accumulation rhythm fluctuates, and prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - Zinc: The rebound of the black - metal sector boosts zinc prices, and short - selling opportunities should be watched. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc - ore supply [7]. - Lead: Cost support is stable, and inventory accumulates. Prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports [7]. - Nickel: With the opening of the LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse, nickel prices are expected to decline in the long term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and insufficient supply [7]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [7]. - Tin: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and prices are strongly supported at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement expectations [7]. - Industrial Silicon: Silicon prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt changes. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply - side production cuts and excessive photovoltaic installations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply disruptions are hyped, and prices fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline [9]. - LPG: The market returns to trading a loose fundamental situation and may decline [9]. - Asphalt: "Anti - involution" trading keeps the asphalt - fuel oil price spread high, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High supply and "anti - involution" factors lead to a weakening market, which is expected to decline [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Rotterdam's low - sulfur marine fuel is largely replaced by high - sulfur fuel, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - Methanol: Low domestic production counters increasing imports, and the market fluctuates [9]. - Urea: The domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and exports are needed. The market may fluctuate [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting. The market is expected to rise [9]. - PX: Crude - oil prices are stable, and PX fluctuates strongly [9]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but the cost of PX is strong. The market fluctuates [9]. - Short - Fiber: The basis declines, and processing fees increase. The market is expected to rise [9]. - Bottle Chips: Maintenance begins, and processing fees reach the bottom. The market fluctuates [9]. - PP: News of petrochemical growth boosts the market, which fluctuates [9]. - Plastic: Production is expected to increase next week, and the market fluctuates [9]. - Styrene: There is no clear market driver, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - PVC: Market sentiment warms up again, and the market fluctuates [9]. - Caustic Soda: Expectations for growth are strong, and the market is cautiously optimistic [9]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil leads the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory - accumulation pressure in producing areas. The market is expected to rise [9]. - Protein Meal: Concerns about China's counter - measures against Canada drive up rapeseed meal prices. The market is expected to rise [9]. - Corn/Starch: Spot supply is locally tight, and prices fluctuate weakly. The market is expected to decline [9]. - Hogs: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. The market fluctuates [9]. Agriculture - Rubber: Positive sentiment drives up prices, and the market fluctuates [9]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market rebounds after a decline and fluctuates [9]. - Pulp: The market is dominated by macro factors and fluctuates. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [9]. - Cotton: Cotton prices rise with increasing positions and reach new highs. Attention should be paid to demand and production [9]. - Sugar: Sugar prices rise slightly and fluctuate [9]. - Logs: Delivery continues, and prices rise with increasing positions. Attention should be paid to shipment and delivery volumes. The market is expected to decline [9].