Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the steel market is affected by seasonal factors, with steel demand facing seasonal weakening pressure. The market is also concerned about future export demand. For steel, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term steel mill production cuts and the impact of the Sino - US trade war on the market. For iron ore, the short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand on hot metal needs to be monitored [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs [Ribbed Bars] - Futures: The 10 - contract of ribbed bars continued its rebound trend driven by the reduction of short - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3147 yuan/ton, up 14.0 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [5]. - Spot: The prices of ribbed bars in mainstream regions generally increased significantly, and overall transactions improved slightly. The national average price of ribbed bars increased by 24 yuan to 3319 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 65.08%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29%. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 7.6 tons to 209.06 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - Fundamentals - Short - process Steel Mills: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3147 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan. The profit of electric furnace ribbed bars was a loss of 227 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 13 yuan in the loss [5]. - Fundamentals - Long - process Steel Mills: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2729 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan. The profit of blast furnace ribbed bars was 191 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 43 yuan. The profit of long - process steel mills shrank significantly [5]. - Demand: The building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of ribbed bars continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.33 tons to 9.50 tons, and the apparent demand for ribbed bars decreased by 15.33 tons to 206.17 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, while the inventory of ribbed bars began to increase slightly. As of Friday, the total inventory of ribbed bars increased by 2.89 tons to 543.26 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for ribbed bars in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the 10 - contract of ribbed bars, and the basis was expected to continue to widen [9]. - Comprehensive Judgment: In the short term, ribbed bar production will continue to decline slightly, demand will decline significantly, and inventory will increase slightly. Technically, the weekly - level trend is likely to be weak, while the daily - level trend is stabilizing and rebounding [9]. [Iron Ore] - Futures: The 09 - contract of iron ore continued its rebound trend driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.75% [7]. - Spot: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to increase slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [7]. - Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 14th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2558.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 93.8 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2662.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 178.2 tons [12]. - Fundamentals - Demand: The current average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 322.74 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.23 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons [12]. - Inventory: As of the 18th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports began to increase slightly, reaching 13785.21 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8822.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 157.48 tons [12]. - Basis: As of Friday, the Newmann powder at Qingdao Port was the optimal delivery product at 805 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan over the 10 - contract of iron ore, and the basis was expected to widen [12]. - Comprehensive Judgment: After the end of the quarterly volume rush, the iron ore shipment volume is expected to decline, while the arrival volume will gradually increase. The short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the impact of weakening terminal demand needs to be monitored [12].
铁水超预期增加提振下，螺矿盘面放量突破上涨
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 06:11