HTSC·2025-07-21 06:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the energy sector, specifically for hydropower equipment and new energy [6]. Core Insights - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is expected to create significant investment opportunities, particularly benefiting leading companies in hydropower and transmission equipment [1][2]. - The project is anticipated to generate over 720 billion yuan in new orders for hydropower equipment and around 500 billion yuan for transmission equipment, positively impacting companies like Harbin Electric and Dongfang Electric [1][4]. - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo project is projected to last over 10 years, with new orders expected to peak around 2028-2029, providing a steady revenue stream for involved companies [3]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo project will have an installed capacity exceeding 60 million kilowatts and an annual generation capacity of approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which is three times that of the Three Gorges project [1][2]. - The total investment for the Yarlung Tsangpo project is estimated at 1.2 trillion yuan, five times that of the Three Gorges project [1]. Equipment Demand - The project is expected to drive demand for hydropower equipment, with an estimated 720 billion yuan in new orders, benefiting companies like Harbin Electric and Dongfang Electric [1][3]. - The focus on long-distance power transmission will lead to increased demand for ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC) transmission lines, with an estimated investment of 500 billion yuan in related equipment [4]. Timeline and Revenue Impact - The timeline for the Yarlung Tsangpo project indicates that equipment tenders will begin 2-3 years after the project starts, with order confirmations occurring in the following years [3]. - The expected annual revenue from the project could average 14.4 billion yuan from 2031 to 2035, which is double the combined revenue of Harbin Electric and Dongfang Electric in 2024 [3]. Recommended Companies - The report highlights several companies as key beneficiaries of the Yarlung Tsangpo project, including: - Harbin Electric (1133 HK) with a target price of 10.50 yuan - Dongfang Electric (600875 CH) with a target price of 18.22 yuan - Guodian NARI (600406 CH) with a target price of 27.04 yuan - China XD Electric (601179 CH) with a target price of 8.16 yuan - Pinggao Electric (600312 CH) with a target price of 21.28 yuan - XJ Electric (000400 CH) with a target price of 26.41 yuan [8][24].