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贵金属周报:短期横盘蓄势-20250721
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 06:36

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Gold prices are in short - term consolidation, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The short - term is in a sideways accumulation phase, and the medium - term will maintain a volatile upward trend [2][8] - Due to the decrease in inflation expectations, the possibility of a rate cut at the end of this year and comprehensive rate cuts next year are high, and the weakening of the US dollar will support gold prices [4] - The overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the uncertainty of the economy and policies will also affect the gold market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Gold Price Performance - Last week, the New York gold price closed at $3356 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price closed at around 778 yuan per gram [3] US Economic Data - In June, the US CPI rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, the highest since February. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. The PPI data was weak, with a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The core PPI year - on - year increase was 2.6%. Inflation expectations have decreased [4] Fed's Economic Outlook - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has slightly expanded, and the overall economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Recruitment is cautious, and price pressures are emerging [5][6] Market Events - Trump's statement about firing Powell and then denying it caused market fluctuations. Whether to replace Powell has an impact on the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico also adds uncertainty [7][8]