Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall view is that different futures products have different market trends and investment suggestions. For some products like government bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - style market, and caution is advised; for stock index futures, long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered; for precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [5][8][10]. Summary by Product Government Bonds - Last trading day, most government bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the government bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - style market, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan. From January to June 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver main contracts rose. The US consumer confidence index showed an upward trend. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the gold - buying behavior of central banks support the precious metals market. If the US economic growth slows down, the Fed may cut interest rates, providing new upward momentum for gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The important meeting at the beginning of the month triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity still suppress the prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space may be limited. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can wait for the right opportunity to short after the rebound [12]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. Policy expectations boosted the black - series commodities. The iron water daily output declined, the supply increased after April, and the port inventory is close to last year's level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the valuation is relatively high. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profit in time [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rise. The important meeting at the beginning of the month triggered expectations of supply contraction. The coal mine operating rate in the main production areas is rising, and the over - capacity may lead to an increase in supply. The steel mill's iron water output is falling, and the procurement intention is weak. The cost support of coke is effective. Technically, the short - term may remain strong. Investors can wait for the right opportunity to short in the medium - term [16]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The manganese ore supply from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese ore inventory rose slightly. The iron alloy output increased at a low level, and the demand is weak, with high inventory. In the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is in excess, with pressure on prices. If the spot loss continues to expand, low - level out - of - the - money call options can be considered [18]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly without fundamental support. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and the EU approved a new round of sanctions against Russia. The decline in US oil rigs provides some support for oil prices, but the reduction in net long positions and trade frictions restrict the upward movement. Shorting opportunities for the main crude oil contract can be considered [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil spot spread reached a nearly three - year low, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil market may have some downward space in the short - term, with expected supply increase and sufficient inventory. Shorting opportunities for the main fuel oil contract can be considered [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The raw material price declined, and the processing profit became positive. The supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a strong - side oscillation next week. The supply may increase due to less rainfall in the production areas, and the cost support weakens. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Mid - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [29]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract declined slightly. The supply - demand imbalance continues, but the downward space is limited. The industry's promotion of stable growth in the petrochemical industry may drive the market. The supply decreased last week, the demand from downstream enterprises is weak, and the export is affected by India's rainy season and tariffs. The cost and profit are mainly affected by raw materials, and the profit has improved. The market is expected to oscillate strongly [31]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract rose slightly. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly. The supply is expected to remain high, the agricultural demand is limited, and the industrial demand increases slowly. The inventory is higher than expected. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term [34]. PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The PX load declined, and some refineries had maintenance or load - reduction. The import volume increased in May 2025. The rise in European diesel prices and the rebound of oil prices support the market, but the supply - demand balance is tight in the short - term, and the cost support may be insufficient. Short - term oscillation adjustment is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [36]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The supply load increased, and the demand from the polyester industry decreased. The profit is concentrated upstream, and the processing fee is under pressure but has rebounded recently. There may be more unexpected maintenance in the future, with strong support below. Interval participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The overall operating load increased, and some plants had maintenance. The inventory in the East China main port decreased. The demand from the polyester industry declined. The short - term supply pressure has been relieved, with support below. Cautious attitude towards the downside space is recommended, and interval participation is mainly suggested, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. Short - fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract rose. The supply load decreased, the demand from the downstream is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost of PTA and ethylene glycol oscillates, with insufficient short - term drivers. Some plants have production cut, and the processing fee is gradually repairing. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and cautious attitude towards the repair space of the processing difference is recommended [41]. Bottle - chip - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 main contract rose. Recently, more bottle - chip plants had maintenance, and the load declined. The downstream soft - drink consumption is recovering, and the export is growing. The raw material price oscillates, and the inventory is reducing, with support for the market. It is expected to oscillate following the cost [42]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract closed flat. Some plants' loads changed. The production was stable at a high level, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is stable, with flexible transactions. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve, and the downstream glass industry has limited support. Rational attitude is recommended, and excessive chasing or shorting is not advisable [43]. Glass - Last trading day, the glass 2509 main contract declined slightly. The number of in - production lines remained low. The market sentiment in different regions is different, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The overall market is driven by macro - sentiment and some enterprises' price increases, with some replenishment by the middle and lower reaches. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [45]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract declined slightly. The production of large - scale caustic soda enterprises increased last week, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The non - aluminum downstream is cautious in purchasing, and the supply - demand difference is positive. The inventory increased, and the capacity utilization ratio in different regions changed. The price of alumina may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The overall market is expected to oscillate narrowly [46]. Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp 2509 main contract rose. The supply is expected to expand, and a new pulp factory will be put into operation in 2026. The downstream product output declined, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The supply pressure increases due to the expected arrival of Brazilian shipments. The port inventory is high, and the market confidence is suppressed. The price of raw pulp oscillates, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The concerns about the supply side due to mining license issues have pushed up the price, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The supply is strong, the production intention of refineries is high, and the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high and still increasing. The impact of supply - side sentiment is greater than the actual situation, and more observation and less action are recommended [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rebounded slightly. The US tariff on copper will be implemented on August 1st, which led to the return of refined copper to China and depressed the price. After the decline, the price stabilized and rebounded. Long - buying opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract can be considered [51]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply from the mine end is tight, but the expectation of tin mine resumption in the fourth quarter has increased. The domestic processing fee is low, and the smelter's operating rate is below normal. The export from Indonesia has recovered, but the overall supply is still short. The consumption in the traditional field is in the off - season. The inventory at home and abroad is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The price of the mine end has weakened due to the pressure from the stainless - steel industry. The downstream nickel - iron plants are in losses, and some plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. The stainless - steel market is strong in the futures but weak in the spot. The consumption is weak, and there is pressure above. The inventory in China is relatively high, and the primary nickel market is in excess [55]. Soybean Products (Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil) - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill's profit is low, with sufficient supply in the future. The increase in Brazilian soybean import cost provides support. The oil - mill's inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil increased. The consumption of soybean oil may be affected by the slowdown of catering growth, while the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. For soybean meal, long - buying opportunities at the support level after adjustment can be considered; for soybean oil, call - option opportunities at the support level after the decline can be considered [56]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose for the third consecutive week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products decreased in the first 15 days of July. The biodiesel consumption in Indonesia increased, and the palm oil tax revenue is expected to support the biodiesel quota plan. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - high level in the past 7 years. The opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed slightly strengthened. The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China decreased in May 2025. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil in China decreased. Long - buying opportunities for rapeseed products can be considered [61]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July supply - demand report showed an increase in the global and US cotton production and ending inventory. The domestic cotton sowing area increased in 2025, and the output is expected to increase. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the short - term cotton price rebounds with the overall commodity market. The 7 - month supply - demand report is bearish. The domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease. The import volume of sugar in China increased in June but decreased from January to June. The sugar production in the key central - southern region of Brazil decreased more than expected in the second half of June. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume is high. After the short - term basis repair, the valuation is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The expectation of apple production reduction has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly in the 2025 - 2026 season. The inventory in the main production areas decreased. The main contract represents the new - year purchase price. Short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [69]. Pig - The national average price of pigs decreased yesterday. The northern market was strong on the weekend, with the support of farmers' supply reduction, second - fattening, and seasonal consumption. The central region increased the supply, and the price decreased slightly. The southern market rose, with the support of the typhoon, farmers' reluctance to sell, and second - fattening. The short - term southern market may still have a small upward space, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm [70]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The cost per catty of eggs decreased slightly, and the profit is still in losses. The inventory of laying hens increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July. The supply is expected to increase year - on - year in July, and it is in the consumption off - season. The supply pressure in October may be relieved. The 9 - 10 reverse - spread strategy can be considered [72]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The market is worried about the impact of high - temperature on US corn growth. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is recovering. The port inventory has decreased rapidly, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The import may increase in the future, and the central - reserve corn auction has a net sales. The upward movement may face pressure, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, high inventory, and follows the corn market [75]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract rose. The number of expected arrival ships of New Zealand logs in 18 ports increased in the 27th week of 2025, and the arrival volume increased significantly. The cost factors are mixed. The domestic log inventory has been decreasing, and the radiation - pine inventory has decreased rapidly. The price of radiation - pine logs in the port is stable. Before the first delivery, the market is expected to oscillate and adjust. The delivery situation has a positive impact on the main 09 and far - month contracts, but the price of standard products has not increased significantly [78].
西南期货早间评论-20250721
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-21 06:31