Huachuang Securities·2025-07-21 06:42Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [8][29][30] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][30] - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, impacting short-term crude oil and natural gas production capacity [29][30] Coal Industry - The market price for thermal coal has increased, with the average price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 637 RMB/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week, driven by increased downstream purchasing demand [11][12] - Coal inventory at major ports has decreased by 6.32% to 25.2 million tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12] - The demand for coal is supported by rising electricity consumption due to high summer temperatures, although cement demand is declining [11][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing price increases, with the price of Shanxi main coking coal rising by 6.67% to 1,440 RMB/ton [13][14] - Downstream steel mills are maintaining high production levels, leading to a positive outlook for coking coal prices as demand remains strong [13][14] - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with expectations of further price increases due to rising costs and stable demand from steel producers [13][14] Natural Gas - Industrial natural gas production in China showed steady growth, with June output at 21.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15][16] - The average price of natural gas in the US has risen to $3.51 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous week [15][16] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and increased competition for supplies [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies [17][18] - The total capital expenditure for major oil companies in 2023 is projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [17][18] - The number of active drilling rigs globally has decreased to 1,576, indicating a cautious approach to new investments in oil and gas exploration [18]