GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-21 06:55Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The second-generation refrigerant quota is set to be reduced as scheduled, while the third-generation refrigerant policy will continue, leading to an optimized supply-demand structure under quota constraints. Prices for second and third-generation refrigerants are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2025, indicating a favorable refrigerant market cycle. Domestic companies with strong comprehensive capabilities, complete product matrices, and advanced technology reserves will benefit from the refrigerant quotas [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Key Announcements - During the week of July 14-18, 2025, the fluorochemical sector saw significant stock price increases, with Zhongxin Fluorine Materials rising by 14.34%, Dongyue Group by 4.25%, and Yonghe Co. by 3.26% [7]. - Key announcements include Haohua Technology expecting a net profit of 590 million to 650 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10% to 21.18%. Juhua Co. anticipates a revenue of 11.712 billion yuan, a 27.29% increase year-on-year, with net profit projections of 1.970 billion to 2.130 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [7][8]. Industry Dynamics: Refrigerant Price Trends - Refrigerant prices continue to rise, with R22 priced at 36,000 yuan/ton, R32 at 53,500 yuan/ton, R134A at 50,000 yuan/ton, and others showing varying weekly and monthly increases. The cost side shows stability with prices for raw materials like fluorite and sulfuric acid remaining relatively unchanged [10][11]. Inventory Levels and Operating Rates - Inventory levels are normal, with R22, R32, R134A, and R125 stocks at 4,165 tons, 3,843 tons, 3,305 tons, and 2,697 tons respectively, indicating a healthy supply situation. Operating rates for refrigerants have increased, with R22 at 55.42% and R32 at 66.20% as of June 2025 [12]. Demand Side: Production and Export Growth - The production of air conditioners reached 163.296 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.97%, while exports totaled 41.05 million units, up 6.85% year-on-year [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Juhua Co. and Dongyue Group, with related stocks including Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. These companies are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions and strong domestic capabilities [17][18].