每周投资策略-20250721

Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with current earnings reflecting a 10-15% impact from tariffs [8][15][10] - The European telecom sector shows potential for dividend growth, with an average expected increase of 4.3% over the next two years [22][19] - The Stoxx 600 index's earnings have been adjusted downwards by 3-4.5% due to tariff impacts, with a potential further decline of 2.5-5% under a 25% tariff scenario [16][18] Group 2: Japanese Market Focus - Japan's inflation is projected to further slow to around 2.5%, with the Tokyo CPI showing a decrease from 3.6% to 3.1% [34][36] - The machine tool orders in Japan remained stable, with June orders reaching 133 billion yen, indicating a 3% month-on-month growth [33][31] - Companies like JR East and Fujitsu are highlighted for their growth opportunities, with JR East's target price set at 4,100 yen and Fujitsu at 4,200 yen [42][40] Group 3: Taiwan Market Focus - Taiwan's exports surged by 33.7% year-on-year in June, driven by strong demand for technology products, particularly computers and servers [52][49] - AI demand remains robust, but corporate earnings growth may slow, with potential risks to performance in the second half of the year [53][55] - Companies such as Jentech and Jiadeng Precision are positioned to benefit from strong ASIC demand and advanced process requirements, respectively [57][56]