宏观点评：6月经济的边际变化值得关注-20250721

Overseas Macro - The global manufacturing PMI index in June recorded 50.3%, returning to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in global manufacturing activity[1] - The impact of the tariff war on the economy is weakening, with concerns about high tariffs gradually diminishing as the U.S. continues tariff negotiations with various countries[1] - U.S. inflation is expected to continue rising in the coming months due to the transmission effects of tariffs, which will reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1][19] Domestic Macro - In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding the annual growth target of 5%[2] - However, nominal GDP growth in Q2 was only 3.9%, a significant decline of 0.6 percentage points from Q1, marking the lowest growth rate in 2023[2] - In June, retail sales growth fell to 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May, indicating weakening consumer demand[2][26] - Fixed asset investment growth in June was only 0.5%, down 2.4 percentage points from May, the lowest since 2022[2][28] - Exports in June increased by 5.8% year-on-year, but the decline in exports to the U.S. was still significant at 16.1%[2][31] Policy and Market Outlook - Global macro policy certainty is gradually increasing, with expectations for new policies to be introduced in the latter part of Q3 to support economic growth[3][38] - The stock market has seen significant increases in China, the U.S., and Japan, while oil prices have declined due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[3][40] - The overall economic pressure in China may increase in the second half of the year, necessitating attention to the effectiveness of incremental policies[2][35]