当前时点看好券商的三个理由

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the brokerage sector [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes three main reasons for the positive outlook on brokerages: 1) The financial sector is currently lagging, with a high safety margin in valuations; 2) Upcoming mid-year reports are expected to show continued high growth in performance; 3) The absolute value of AH premium remains high, with ongoing valuation recovery in H-shares [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Reason 1: Financial Sector Lagging with High Valuation Safety Margin - Since the beginning of 2025, brokerages have underperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of only 0.1% compared to a 3.0 percentage point underperformance against the CSI 300 index. Within the financial sector, brokerages lag behind insurance, diversified finance, and banks by 10.1, 11.3, and 20.0 percentage points respectively. However, since June, the sector has shown positive excess returns against the CSI 300 [6][17] - As of July 18, 2025, the price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 1.50, which is around the 40th percentile of the relative valuation range since 2016, indicating a high safety margin [22][23] Reason 2: Upcoming Mid-Year Reports Expected to Show Continued High Growth - The market has maintained high trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1,390.2 billion yuan from January to June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 61.1%. The A-share IPO, refinancing, and bond underwriting scales for the same period are 37.4 billion yuan, 697.7 billion yuan, and 45 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.0%, 613.5%, and 16.6% respectively [7][30] - Among 31 brokerages that have disclosed performance forecasts, all expect a net profit growth rate of over 40%, with two companies projecting over 1000% growth [38] Reason 3: High Absolute Value of AH Premium and H-share Valuation Recovery - As of July 18, 2025, the AH premium for the brokerage sector stands at 68.1%, with the average AH premium for the entire industry at 62.0%. Notably, Citic Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and CICC maintain AH premiums above 100% [8][45] - The report highlights that the current AH premium levels for brokerages are historically high, with specific companies like Citic Securities at 133.8%, Guolian Minsheng at 118.0%, and CICC at 104.5% [48]