策略点评：宽松叙事下，全球普涨&补涨：港股&海外周观察

Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is in an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index set to break previous highs, indicating a strong support level below[2] - Recent weeks have seen a phase of capital inflow into technology and internet stocks, providing momentum for the overall market[2] Investment Strategies - Domestic funds, particularly insurance capital, are considering increasing their positions in dividend stocks, with a focus on those with potential for mid-year dividends and relative affordability[2] - There is a growing interest in sectors with performance potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics, which are perceived as undervalued[2] Global Market Observations - The U.S. stock market continues to show resilience, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 0.59% amid a backdrop of strong macroeconomic fundamentals[5] - Recent U.S. retail sales data for June showed a surprising month-on-month increase of 0.6%, reversing a two-month decline, driven by a rebound in auto sales[5] Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook remains cautious, with speculation about potential interest rate cuts in July, influenced by inflation nearing target levels and a weaker labor market[6] - Trade policy uncertainties are gradually easing, with recent agreements reducing tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%[6] Capital Flows - Global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $25.728 billion, with the U.S. leading at $13.49 billion, while emerging markets, particularly China, experienced a net outflow of $430 million[12] - The financial sector attracted the most capital inflow, while healthcare and consumer sectors saw significant outflows[12] Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 5.5% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.8%[7] - Year-to-date performance shows the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 16.2%, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index is up 9.7%[17] Risk Considerations - There are concerns about rising overseas risks, particularly regarding the continued appreciation of U.S. dollar assets, which may divert global funds away from Chinese assets[5] - The potential for a rapid U.S. economic downturn remains a risk, alongside geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating trade policies[14]