策略观点：等待经济政策为市场定调-20250721

Market Performance Review - The A-share market continued its upward momentum this week, with all major indices rising. The ChiNext Index performed the best, increasing by 3.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the SSE 50 rose by 0.69% and 0.28%, respectively [5][15] - There was a divergence in market styles this week, with growth, consumption, and cyclical styles continuing to rise, while financial and stable styles experienced a pullback [5][15] - All market capitalization styles saw increases, with mid-cap and small-cap indices significantly outperforming the large-cap index [5][15] - Core assets and leading growth stocks, represented by the "Mao Index" and "Ning Combination," also saw gains, with the Ning Combination rising by 1.56% and the Mao Index increasing by 2.29% [5][15] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index has declined, diverging from the index's upward trend. As of July 19, the 7-day moving average of the personal investor sentiment index was reported at 0.58%, a significant drop from 9.40% on July 12 [23][24] - Despite the continuous rise in A-share indices over the past two weeks, personal investor sentiment has consistently decreased, contrasting sharply with the previous correlation observed from September 24, 2024, to early March 2025 [23][24] Industry Rotation Speed and Intensity Tracking - The current market is characterized by a "high speed, low intensity" rotation phase, with historical data indicating that such phases typically lead to sideways market movements lasting an average of two months [31][32] - The industry rotation began in late April, and a decrease in rotation speed is expected in July, suggesting that the market may find a trading theme [31][32] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting at the end of July is anticipated to analyze the current economic situation and set the tone for economic policies in the second half of the year, focusing on "stabilizing growth" and "anti-involution" [6][43] - The market is expected to favor high-quality growth stocks and "anti-involution" strategies, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in sectors like steel, building materials, and photovoltaics [6][45] - The pure dividend assets represented by banks have entered a "tail" market, with limited future upside due to the weakening of the stock-bond differential compensation [6][45]