合成橡胶投资周报：原料端走强支撑，BR盘面高位震荡运行-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The reduction of butadiene inventory supports the raw material price of synthetic rubber. However, the overall supply of the cis - butadiene rubber fundamentals remains relatively loose. Although the factory inventory is being depleted smoothly, the inventory of traders continues to accumulate. The market is waiting for an increase in new downstream orders. It is expected that the synthetic rubber will remain in a destocking state in the short - term, and the price will remain stable and show an oscillating upward trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and PetroChina's sales companies' ex - factory prices decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis in China was between 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton. The early continuous price - pressing transactions led to a significant market inversion. The price cut at the beginning of the week was in line with market expectations. The spot supply side changed little, the raw material end saw better transactions after the price decline, and the futures market of synthetic rubber quickly strengthened, driving the low - price range of the spot end to rise significantly. However, downstream terminals still maintained price - pressing purchases, and the spot market followed up slowly [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 101,800 tons (- 2.86%), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical 3, and a set of Shanghai Secco remained shut down. Sheng Hong restarted after a short - term shutdown, which affected the production decline [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: Last week, the production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons (- 2.16%), and the capacity utilization rate was 65.54%. Only a few devices had a slight decline in load this week. Some maintenance devices in North China may restart in the next cycle [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - Semi - steel tires: The domestic replacement market was stable during the cycle. The market had regular shipments. The continuous high - temperature weather in many regions slightly boosted the terminal replacement, but the current market inventory was high, and the focus was on digesting the existing inventory. - All - steel tires: Similar to the semi - steel tire market, there was no obvious performance yet. Market merchants at all levels were mainly digesting previous inventories. Some brand agents carried out small - scale self - promotions this month according to their own inventory situations. - Overall situation: Currently, enterprise production scheduling tends to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle of the month, which is expected to slightly drive the overall start - up, but the overall fluctuation is expected to be small. The overall market shipment is tepid, the channel supply is sufficient, and the increase in terminal demand is limited. Although the hot weather has driven the downstream market demand to some extent, the overall effect is average [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 23,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.69%. The import shipments last week were limited, the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed, and the recent trading volume was limited, which led to a significant decline in the sample port inventory. The enterprise inventory increased slightly, but there was no overall pressure [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: Last week, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The expected price cut of the supply price, affected by the failure of an upstream device in East China at the butadiene raw material end, led to a slight overall increase in the production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in the sample trading enterprise inventory [3]. 3.4 Other Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 165 yuan/ton, in East China was - 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 65 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures price oscillated upward, the basis narrowed and remained stable, and the futures price was at a premium to the spot price [3]. 3.4.2 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 3,090 yuan/ton (12.57%), the NR - BR spread was 955 yuan/ton (25.66%), and the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.32% [3]. 3.4.3 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 66 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit by C4 extraction was 1,750.82 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 276 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 2.30% [3]. 3.4.4 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC maintained its 2025 crude oil demand forecast in its July report, and oil - producing countries continued their production increase progress. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and diesel inventories increased significantly. The refined oil market was weaker than the crude oil market. China's average annual growth rate of foreign investment exceeded 5%, and the total scale ranked among the top three in the world. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy continued, and China's "anti - involution" policy continued to advance [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Oscillating. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance situations, and geopolitical issues [3].