华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250721

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - 成材: Expected to be in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic market sentiment. The winter storage this year is lackluster, providing limited price support. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3]. - 铝锭: The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Although the inventory shows repeated trends during the off - season, short - term domestic policies have significantly boosted the price of industrial metals. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 - Production Impact: Yunnan and Guizhou regional short - process construction steel enterprises will have a total impact on construction steel production of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [2]. - Real Estate Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Price Trend: Yesterday, the price continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is lackluster, with limited price support [2][3]. 铝锭 - Macro Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including non - ferrous metals. Domestic "anti - involution" policies have driven up the price of industrial metals [2]. - Alumina Market: On July 17, Guinea revoked the licenses of 6 bauxite enterprises, but they are long - idle mining rights. Short - term domestic macro policies have significantly boosted the price of alumina. The demand in the southwest region has increased due to the upcoming commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, while some enterprises will start maintenance in late July, which may tighten the supply. Nationally, the supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the weekly inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased by about 25,800 tons, which may put pressure on the spot price [3]. - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: On July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 498,000 tons, with a complex change compared to last week. The reduction in aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and an obvious increase in supply, but the inventory performance is still repeated [3].