市场流动性和情绪尚好，股指偏强运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic and overseas factors are generally favorable. The "anti - involution" policy and the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month have raised policy expectations. Overseas, the postponement of reciprocal tariffs to August and the TACO transaction have boosted market sentiment, while the recent expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased. A - share liquidity and market sentiment are strong, and stock index futures are expected to run strongly. The strategy is mainly to adjust and go long [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces: Economic and corporate earnings are neutral; macro - policies are neutral; overseas factors are slightly positive; liquidity is slightly positive [3]. - Investment View and Strategy: Adjust and go long. The trading strategy is to adjust and go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 1.09% to 4058.5; the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.28% to 2764.5; the CSI 500 rose 1.2% to 6099.6; the CSI 1000 rose 1.41% to 6552.1 [5]. - Industry Index Performance: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, communication (7.6%), pharmaceutical biology (4%), automobiles (3.3%), machinery and equipment (2.9%), and national defense and military industry (2.3%) led the gains last week, while media (- 2.2%), real estate (- 2.2%), public utilities (- 1.4%), non - bank finance (- 1.2%), and banks (- 1%) led the losses [8]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of various stock index futures showed different changes. For example, the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 3.10%, and the open interest decreased by 11.96% [12]. - Cross - Variety Spread Performance: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Composite 50, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 are at certain historical percentile levels [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - Funds and Macro - liquidity: The central bank conducted 17268 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12011 billion yuan. Next week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 2000 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 25 [23]. - Market Liquidity Indicators: As of July 17, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 18984.4 billion yuan, an increase of 285.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 323.8 billion yuan compared with the previous week [29]. 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - Macroeconomic Indicators: In the first half of 2025, China's GDP totaled 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, but the demand side weakened. Real estate investment from January to June further declined to - 11.2%, and the growth rate of consumption in June was 4.8%, lower than last month's 6.4% [3]. - Corporate Earnings Indicators: The report provides the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent and ROE of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes [44][45]. 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driving - Recent Macro - policy Trends: A series of important meetings and policies have been introduced, including the central government's emphasis on promoting the construction of a unified national market, urban work deployment, and a series of monetary and fiscal policies [49][50][51]. 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In June, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000 [57]. - Trump Team's Actions: Trump's team has announced a series of tariff policies, which have a significant impact on international trade and the global economic situation [65][67][69]. 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation Levels: As of July 18, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.4 times, 11.4 times, 29.8 times, and 40.2 times respectively, and were at the 71.4%, 81.4%, 70.6%, and 60.8% percentile levels in the past ten years [72].