Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bullish [3] - Soda Ash: Sideways [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply and demand of glass are stable, and market sentiment dominates. Soda ash has a weak fundamental situation but positive market sentiment [3][4]. - The "anti - involution" theme is the main trading logic in the short - term, improving overall sentiment and causing glass and soda ash prices to rise. Glass has demand resilience and price support, while soda ash faces price pressure due to supply increase and demand weakening [40][41][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Neutral, with stable production. Daily output is 158,400 tons, industry start - up rate is 75.68%, and capacity utilization is 79.2%, all unchanged from the 10th. No new ignition or water - release production lines this week, and one pre - ignited line may produce glass next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish, with short - term resilience despite overall pressure in the off - season. Mid - term demand is a concern due to the weak real estate situation [3]. - Inventory: Bullish, with significant inventory reduction. Enterprise inventory is 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with volatile basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [3]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding from the low point and cost support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [3]. - Investment View: Bullish, with short - term supply - demand stability and sentiment - driven [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy call options for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish, with increased supply. This week's production is 733,200 tons, a 3.42% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash production is 318,500 tons, and heavy soda ash production is 414,700 tons, both increasing. Supply is expected to continue rising next week [4]. - Demand: Bearish, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [4]. - Inventory: Bearish, with increased inventory. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral, with a weakening basis this week and a lower 09 - 01 spread [4]. - Valuation: Neutral, with prices rebounding and cost support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish, with improved market sentiment due to the "anti - involution" trading logic [4]. - Investment View: Sideways, with a weak fundamental situation but positive sentiment [4]. - Trading Strategy: No single - side or arbitrage strategy [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1081 (+55), and the Shahe spot price was 1088 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated strongly. The main contract closed at 1216 (+42), and the Shahe spot price was 1215 (+13) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated, and the basis fluctuated [20]. - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. Production is stable, and production profits have slightly recovered. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 178.90 yuan/ton, a 4.21 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; using coal - made gas is 121.83 yuan/ton, a 13.05 - yuan/ton increase; using petroleum coke is - 4.76 yuan/ton, a 45.71 - yuan/ton increase [23]. - Demand: Resilient. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, with an average order days of 9.3 days, a 2.1% week - on - week and a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor [26][27]. - Inventory: Significantly reduced, with enterprise inventory at 64.939 million heavy cases, a 3.22% week - on - week decrease and a 0.29% year - on - year increase. Inventory days are 27.9 days, 1 day less than the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Increasing. Production has increased, and production profits are decreasing. Ammonia - soda method theoretical profit is - 83.20 yuan/ton, a 0.90 - yuan/ton week - on - week decrease; combined - soda method theoretical profit (double - ton) is - 33.50 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [32][33]. - Demand: Weakening, with weakening demand from the float and photovoltaic industries, especially in the photovoltaic industry with expected production cuts. Downstream purchases are mainly on - demand [36]. - Inventory: Increasing. Total factory inventory is 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% week - on - week increase. Light soda ash inventory decreases by 8,300 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory increases by 50,500 tons [37].
玻璃纯碱：跟随市场情绪，基本面持稳
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-21 09:20