铁矿石：“反内卷”政策驱动矿价短期偏强运行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that with the continuous recovery of external demand, rising risk appetite, and the strengthening of short - term domestic macro - expectations and industrial policy drivers, the market focus may shift to trading a strong reality and strong expectations. With reduced foreign ore shipments, declining arrivals at ports leading to inventory depletion, and relatively high demand, the short - term iron ore futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 790 yuan/ton - 835 yuan/ton, and the outer - disk FE08 contract price is expected to be in the range of 100.5 - 106 US dollars/ton. Later, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the market mainly traded the grand narrative logic of "anti - involution" to break low prices, leading to a collective increase in the prices of the black series. Despite the off - season for terminal demand, the inventory of finished products did not accumulate. The significant increase in finished product prices led to an expansion of long - process steel mill profits, and the loss situation of short - process steel mills improved but remained in full - scale losses. The expectation of an annual surplus of iron ore was revised, with the supply - side growth rate falling short of expectations, high domestic demand, and relatively low short - term accumulation pressure on port inventories. Iron ore is in a pattern of strong reality and strong expectations [2]. Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a periodic decline cycle. Australian BHP and FMG mines entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - high level. The short - term arrival volume is expected to decline from a high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the outer - disk price to 100 US dollars/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [2]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output in China has stopped falling and rebounded, with the current daily average molten iron output at 242.44 (a month - on - month increase of 2.63). With a high profitability rate of steel mills and considerable blast furnace profits, combined with the full - scale deep losses of short - process steel mills and the high cost - effectiveness of molten iron, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end has increased, and the inventory level has continued to decline. With the continuous rise in iron ore prices, the expectation of steel mills to replenish inventory is strong. The arrival volume has declined from a high level, and the port clearance volume has rebounded in tandem with the molten iron output. The port inventory has slightly increased this period, and the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly later [2]. Price - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The price range of the i2509 contract is 790 yuan/ton - 835 yuan/ton, and the price range of the outer - disk FE08 contract is 100.5 - 106 US dollars/ton [2].