流动性和机构行为周度观察：税期后预计资金面将重回平稳-20250721

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - From July 14 - 18, 2025, the central bank conducted net 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing and 140 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. The funding situation tightened during the tax period. After the tax - period disturbance ends, the funding situation is expected to return to a stable state. [2][5][6] - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased. [2][6][7][8] - From July 21 - 27, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 28.49 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 107.65 billion yuan, with an increased pressure on maturity renewal compared to the previous week. [2][6][7] Summary by Directory Funding Situation - Central Bank's Liquidity Injection: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase injected 172.68 billion yuan and withdrew 42.57 billion yuan. 10 billion yuan of MLF matured, and on July 15, an outright reverse repurchase operation of 140 billion yuan was carried out. From July 21 - 25, with over 2 trillion yuan of funds maturing, it may bring some pressure to the funding situation, but the central bank is expected to continue to support the funding situation. [5] - Slight Convergence of Funding Situation: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 14.6 and 13.4 basis points respectively compared to July 7 - 11. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 5.8 and 3.2 basis points respectively. After the tax - period disturbance, the funding situation is expected to return to a stable state. [6] - Increase in Net Payment Scale of Government Bonds: From July 14 - 20, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 42.88 billion yuan, an increase of about 17.77 billion yuan compared to July 7 - 13. From July 21 - 27, 2025, the expected net payment scale of government bonds is 28.49 billion yuan. [6] Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Most Maturity Yields Declined: As of July 18, 2025, the 1 - month NCD maturity yield was basically the same as on July 11, while the 3 - month and 1 - year NCD maturity yields decreased by 2 and 1 basis points respectively compared to July 11. [7] - Positive Net Financing Scale: From July 14 - 20, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 14.44 billion yuan, turning positive from - 8.41 billion yuan in July 7 - 13. From July 21 - 27, 2025, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 107.65 billion yuan, with increased pressure on maturity renewal. [7] Institutional Behavior - Decrease in Leverage Ratio of Inter - bank Bond Market: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.58%, lower than the 108.18% in July 7 - 11. [8]