Report Title - Fixed Income Weekly Report (2025/07/14 - 2025/07/18) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The bond market has been in a volatile and weak pattern recently, with the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuating narrowly around 1.65%. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, which is expected to continue the policy tone of "stabilizing growth, employment, and prices", but the probability of large-scale stimulus is low [6]. - The stock-bond seesaw effect has significantly strengthened recently, and the trend of the equity market has become a key marginal driving factor for the bond market. The central bank maintains a precise regulatory approach of "smoothing peaks and filling valleys". In the future, due to factors such as the increased supply of government bonds, the central bank may continue refined regulation, and the capital market will maintain a stable and slightly tight pattern [7]. - In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to maintain a trading mindset. The 10-year Treasury yield above 1.70% can be considered an attractive allocation area, and 1.80% is a strong upper pressure limit. In the short term, the market may remain volatile, and investors should wait patiently and focus on the equity market trend, the actual intensity of the central bank's liquidity operations, and the policy signals released by the Politburo meeting [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One-week View - The Politburo meeting in July is expected to continue the policy direction of "stabilizing growth, employment, and prices", but the probability of large-scale strong stimulus is low. Fiscal policy may focus on implementing existing policies, real estate policy may optimize purchase and sale restrictions, consumption policy may continue trade-in subsidies, and "anti-involution" policies may drive the recovery of PPI [6]. - The stock-bond seesaw effect has strengthened, and the equity market trend is a key factor for the bond market. The central bank maintains precise regulation, and the capital market will remain stable and slightly tight. It is recommended to maintain a trading mindset and wait for opportunities [7]. 2. Weekly Bond Market Review - On July 14, macro data and capital market disturbances led to bond market fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield first rose and then fell due to factors such as export data, equity market strength, and central bank operations [8]. - On July 15, the divergence of economic data and the failure of policy expectations dominated the market. The 10-year Treasury yield declined as the central city work conference did not release unexpected policy signals [8][9]. - On July 16, the tight balance of the capital market restricted the bond market performance, and the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly [9]. - On July 17, the stock-bond seesaw effect was evident. The bond market was under pressure due to the strength of the equity market and high capital prices [9]. - On July 18, policy expectations caused market fluctuations. The 10-year Treasury yield first rose and then returned to normal as the market interpreted the central bank's bond repurchase new regulations [9]. 3. Treasury and CDB Bond Yields - Most Treasury and CDB bond yields declined. As of July 18, the 1-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.12bp to 1.3490%, and the 10-year decreased by 0.01bp to 1.6652%. The 1-year CDB bond yield decreased by 1.57bp to 1.4789%, and the 10-year decreased by 0.05bp to 1.7171% [3][10]. - The key term spreads of Treasury and CDB bonds generally widened. The 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds widened by 2.11bp to 31.62bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.45bp to 22.33bp. The 10Y - 1Y spread of CDB bonds widened by 1.52bp to 23.82bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 0.20bp to 31.00bp [3][14][15]. 4. Liquidity Tracking 4.1 Funding: Central Bank Net Injection, Slight Increase in Funding Rate Center - From July 14 to July 18, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 12,011.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 17,268.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 4,257.00 billion yuan maturing. The MLF had a net withdrawal of 1,000.00 billion yuan. Next week, 17,268.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with a larger maturity volume than the previous week [16][17]. - Due to the tax period, funding prices increased. R001 rose by 8.43bp to 1.4881%, R007 rose by 1.21bp to 1.5329%, and DR007 rose by 2.78bp to 1.5223%, remaining higher than the OMO7D rate. The R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, indicating a缓解 of the funding stratification phenomenon [17]. - The FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y term spread turned positive for the first time this year, suggesting a缓解 of the market's expectation of medium - and long - term interest rate cuts [17]. 4.2 Bond Supply: Total Issuance and Net Financing Decreased - From July 14 to July 18, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, and the net financing amount decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance scale was 7,078.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,139.07 billion yuan from the previous week. The total repayment scale was 5,597.60 billion yuan, an increase of 2,249.89 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 1,480.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,388.96 billion yuan from the previous week [3][35]. - The issuance scale of government bonds decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. Treasury bond net financing was 581.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,349.90 billion yuan from the previous week, while local government bond net financing was 1,504.99 billion yuan, an increase of 402.70 billion yuan from the previous week [3][36][37]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, the net financing amount increased, and the issuance interest rate rose. The total issuance was 9,471.80 billion yuan, an increase of 5,207.50 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 1,443.70 billion yuan, an increase of 2,284.60 billion yuan from the previous week [38]. 5. Global Asset Class Observation - The US dollar index continued to rise, and precious metals and crude oil prices all declined. The long - term US Treasury yield increased, and the term spread widened. The 10Y/30Y yields increased by 1/4bp to 4.44%/5.00% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread widened by 3bp to 56bp [3][50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.62% to 98.4712, and the US dollar - RMB central parity rate slightly increased by 0.03% to 7.1498. Gold fell 0.31% to 3,349.40 US dollars per ounce, silver fell 1.75% to 38.25 US dollars per ounce, WTI crude oil fell 1.95% to 67.33 US dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 1.98% to 69.23 US dollars per barrel [3][50][55]
固定收益周报：债市承压，静待政策-20250721
Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-07-21 09:46