Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company, Zhaoyan New Drug, is positioned as a leader in the domestic CRO industry, particularly in safety evaluation, with comprehensive GLP qualifications and strategic resources in experimental monkeys. The company is expected to benefit from rising prices of experimental monkeys due to supply constraints and strong demand [1][8]. - The report highlights the mismatch between supply and demand for experimental monkeys, which is driving a price recovery trend. The aging population of breeding monkeys and the long breeding cycle are significant factors affecting supply [2][8]. - The company is expanding its offshore outsourcing business, which is anticipated to create a new growth engine, alongside the recovery of domestic demand [8][42]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected financial performance shows total revenue decreasing from 2,377 million in 2023 to 1,977 million in 2025E, with a subsequent recovery to 2,468 million by 2027E. The net profit is expected to rebound significantly from 74 million in 2024 to 352 million in 2025E [3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 39.8 in 2025E, decreasing to 24.4 by 2027E, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of experimental monkeys is constrained due to an aging population and a long breeding cycle, with over 80% of breeding females being over 8 years old as of 2023. This has led to a significant decline in breeding rates [8][19]. - Demand for experimental monkeys is expected to improve, particularly for biopharmaceutical research, as over 70% of large molecule drugs require monkeys for preclinical trials [26][28]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including monkey breeding facilities, to enhance its supply chain and reduce costs, thereby increasing profitability [8][60]. - The offshore outsourcing strategy is showing positive results, with higher gross margins from overseas orders, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [52][54]. Management and Governance - The management team has extensive experience in drug safety evaluation and a solid governance structure, with key figures holding significant shares in the company [36][40].
昭衍新药（06127）：实验猴刚性缺口驱动战略资源回暖趋势，离岸外包构建第二增长曲线