Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 10:01Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoints - As of July 16, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 806,000 tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons from the previous week. The sales speed improved slightly compared to the previous week and was similar to the same period last year [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the national apple output in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - The current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts the apple demand, and the price momentum is insufficient. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. It is recommended to focus on the production situation and mainly go short - term long at low prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract was 7,923 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 94,770 lots, a decrease of 3,517 lots [2]. - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 4,977 lots, a decrease of 1,873 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of bagged apples above 80 in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output was 5.12851 million tons, an increase of 168,340 tons. The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg. The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.23 yuan/kg [2] - The total national apple cold storage inventory was 806,000 tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons. The warehouse utilization ratio in Shandong was 12%, a decrease of 1%. The warehouse utilization ratio in Shaanxi decreased by 1%. The monthly apple export volume was 50 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export value was 51.525 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was not clearly presented in the report [2] - The weekly profit of first - and second - grade bagged apple 80 storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 9.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 3.94 yuan/kg [2] - The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong was 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong was 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 17%, a decrease of 0.07%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 17%, a decrease of 0.11% [2]