瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For corn, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth rate and high output prospects. In the domestic market, the auction volume of imported corn is decreasing, and the price has dropped due to increased supply and limited demand. Recently, the price has rebounded slightly due to reduced supply and rigid demand from processing enterprises. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch price has rebounded recently following the rebound of corn [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2320.70 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2664.42 yuan/ton, with a change of - 8 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1036253 lots, with a decrease of 31422 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 236649 lots, with a decrease of 25165 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 28996 lots, and for corn starch are - 16750 lots, with a decrease of 3032 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 177343 lots, with a decrease of 940 lots; for corn starch are 12184 lots, with a decrease of 150 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 7.25 cents/bushel; the total open interest of CBOT corn is 1498964 contracts, an increase of 297 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, an increase of 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2408.73 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.62 yuan/ton; the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2360 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1988.98 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.97 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is - 2.27 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 45 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 131 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 22.6 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 22.6 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 7.5 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 44.3 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, with no change [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 83.8 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons; the corn inventory in northern ports is 317 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [2]. - The deep - processing corn inventory is 427 tons, a decrease of 16.6 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 19 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, an increase of 4.06 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 110.05 tons, a decrease of 5.73 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.34%, a decrease of 4.62%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, an increase of 0.15% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.13%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.94%, a decrease of 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.79%, an increase of 0.23%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.8%, an increase of 0.24% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of July 16, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn was 78.9%, 8.7% higher than a week ago [2]. - As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2]. - The soil moisture in some western US states is in short supply [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].