Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 09:59Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term overall methanol industry's overall开工率 is expected to increase slightly, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2411 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 650455 lots, down 19282 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 115233 lots, up 28083 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 10344, up 1800 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; the East - Northwest price difference is 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 21 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 273 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 330 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; FOB Rotterdam is 222 euros/ton, down 14 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 57 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.05 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 63.4 tons, up 6.35 tons; in South China ports, it is 15.62 tons, up 0.78 tons; the methanol import profit is 10.48 yuan/ton, up 14.54 yuan; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 352300 tons, down 4600 tons; the methanol enterprise's operating rate is 82.69%, down 2.06% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 43.65%, down 1.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 90.59%, down 3.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.63%, up 0.77%; the olefin operating rate is 85.1%, down 0.05%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 942 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.64%, up 1.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.78%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.56%, up 0.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.56%, up 0.72% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons, a 1.28% decrease; the orders to be delivered were 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons, a 9.89% increase; the total port inventory was 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons; as of July 17, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, down 0.05 tons, a 1.59% decrease [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the overall methanol production has decreased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown differences, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand has been weak [2] 3.9 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]