瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, tight supply and high - temperature risks for new crops support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream off - season restricts the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips and pay continuous attention to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 30,423 hands, down 7,742 hands; main contract cotton positions are 559,478 hands, down 21,295 hands; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,501 sheets, down 31 sheets. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,390 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures are - 114 hands, down 244 hands; the main contract cotton yarn positions are 17,223 hands, down 1,835 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 sheets, down 1 sheet [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,589 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,792 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,478 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,740 yuan/ton; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,115 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,993 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,232 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 817 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 50 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.3577737 billion US dollars, an increase of 197.1179 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2631773 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.38%, down 0.8%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.37%, down 0.81%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.17%, down 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.16%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 18, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton continued to decline, with a total of 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons (a decrease of 5.71%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.6731 million tons, a decrease of 124,700 tons (a decrease of 6.94%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 419,100 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (a decrease of 2.13%) from the previous week. Internationally, the good - growth rate of US cotton has been adjusted upwards, the weather forecast shows high temperatures, the export data is average, and there are mixed long and short factors such as trade - relation expectations, resulting in an oscillatory operation of US cotton [2]. 3.8 Core View - Currently, tight supply and new crops facing high - temperature weather support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream is in the off - season, restricting the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. The mainstream spinning mills' operating load as of July 17 was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.28% from the previous period. In Xinjiang, some areas have high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage. Technically, the moving averages of the main contract system show a bullish arrangement. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2][3].