Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 10:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position, shock - biased long trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market shows a shock - biased strong trend, with supply stable and demand temporarily weak during the off - season. It is advisable to conduct light - position, shock - biased long trading, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The cast aluminum market may face a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support and weak demand in a game. Light - position, shock - biased long trading is recommended, while controlling rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Positions: The closing prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures main contracts all increased, and their positions also rose. The LME aluminum three - month quotation increased, while the LME aluminum inventory decreased. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly [2]. - Contract Spreads: The spreads between this month and next month's contracts of Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy decreased, while that of alumina increased [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in the spot market generally increased, while the prices of some products such as LME aluminum and Shanghai - Wumao aluminum had different changes in premiums and discounts [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina all decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Demand: Alumina production increased, while capacity utilization decreased slightly. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum part increased, and the supply - demand balance was in a deficit state. The import and export volumes of aluminum waste and alumina had different changes [2]. Industrial Situation - Supply - side: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum products and aluminum alloy increased. The import and export volumes of primary aluminum and aluminum products had different changes [2]. - Demand - side: The production of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the production of automobiles also increased [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased, while the implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum decreased slightly, and the option purchase - put ratio decreased [2]. Industry News - The consumer confidence index in the US increased, and the inflation expectation decreased. The Fed official expressed concerns about tariff - driven inflation and expected a significant interest - rate cut in the next year [2]. - China's consumer market scale ranks second globally, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the high - quality development of the copper, aluminum, and gold industries and regulate the new - energy vehicle industry [2]. Alumina Viewpoint - Fundamentals: The supply of domestic bauxite is sufficient, and the production willingness of smelters has increased. The demand for alumina is supported by the high aluminum price and the progress of an electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project in Yunnan [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars expand and then slightly converge [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project is progressing steadily, but the off - season has affected downstream consumption, and the industrial inventory has accumulated [2]. - Technical Analysis: Similar to alumina, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars expand and then slightly converge [2]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - Fundamentals: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production of casting aluminum enterprises is affected. The off - season has led to weak demand [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars expand and then slightly converge [2].