Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-21 10:06Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is still showing a slowdown trend. After the news of Yajiang today, it has a significant impact on the three major downstream demands of industrial silicon. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 383,296 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3,956 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipt of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50,393 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the basis of the Si main contract is 240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 415 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 10,860 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - A major monomer factory in Shandong had a sudden fire yesterday, and the damage to the device is unknown. It is expected that the quotation in the organic silicon market will rise today. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council approved the establishment of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. Zimbabwe's state - owned mining enterprise Kuvimba Mining House plans to break ground on a concentrator with an annual processing capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate at its Sandawana mine in the third quarter of this year, with a total investment of 270 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into operation in early 2027 [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The current fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is relatively active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants to maintain production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased, the operating rate has increased, and it supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].