瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250721

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract increased in price with decreasing positions. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, is about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. With the rebound of steel prices, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills stopped falling and rebounded, and the molten iron output exceeded 2.4 million tons, with the support of molten iron demand remaining. Overall, there are positive macro - level expectations, and both finished products and furnace materials are rising in resonance. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at high levels. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 809.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; the position volume was 663,446 lots, down 29,220 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 32.5 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 9,688 lots, down 6,143 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,000.00 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.55 US dollars/ton, up 2.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 855 yuan/dry ton, up 24 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 20 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 739 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.20 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.24, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 825 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory of iron ore at 47 ports was 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of iron ore at sample steel mills was 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 64.00%, up 1.17 percentage points. The inventory of iron concentrate at 266 mines was 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index was 2,052.00, up 22.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.79 US dollars/ton, up 0.84 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.68 US dollars/ton, up 0.61 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.26%, up 2.12 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.83%, up 1.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.87%, up 1.91 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.79%, up 2.29 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,109.1 million tons, up 122.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,552.0 million tons, down 6.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,629.4 million tons, down 108.9 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,443.6 million tons, up 13.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 922.6 million tons, up 102.1 million tons. From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,511.8 million tons, down 371.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,371.2 million tons, down 290.9 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,389.2 million tons, up 241.3 million tons [2]