Guoyuan Securities·2025-07-21 10:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry [5] Core Insights - The approval of NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 chips for export to China is expected to significantly boost demand for AI chips in China, leading to positive performance expectations across the related industry chain [1][3] - TSMC has raised its revenue growth guidance for 2025 to a range of 30%, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor sector [3][31] - The overseas AI chip index rose by 4.3% this week, driven by the export approvals, while the domestic AI chip index increased by 1.7% [1][10] - The smartphone market saw a 1% year-on-year decline in Q2 2025, marking the first drop after six consecutive quarters of growth, with Samsung maintaining the largest market share at 19% [2][24] Market Indices Summary - The overseas AI chip index increased by 4.3% this week, with notable stock price increases for AMD (over 7%), NVIDIA, and TSMC (over 4%) [1][10] - The domestic A-share chip index rose by 1.7%, with significant gains from Cambrian (over 5%) and others [10] - The NVIDIA mapping index surged by 6.7%, reflecting increased demand expectations for AI chips [10][13] - The server ODM index grew by 2.2%, driven by the anticipated demand for servers due to the chip exports [10][15] - The domestic storage chip index fell by 0.4%, with mixed performance among various companies [10][19] - The power semiconductor index remained stable with a 1.0% increase [10][16] Industry Data Summary - In Q2 2025, global smartphone shipments decreased by 1%, with Samsung leading the market at 19% share, followed by Apple at 16% and Xiaomi at 15% [2][24] - The share of smartphones equipped with AMOLED displays rose to 63%, while LCD displays dropped to 37% [2][27] Major Events Summary - NVIDIA and AMD received U.S. government approval to sell H20 and MI308 chips in China, respectively [3][30] - Apple is set to launch a foldable iPhone using Samsung's OLED panels, with a projected price exceeding 15,000 RMB [3][30] - Several companies, including SiTew and TSMC, reported significant revenue growth forecasts for 2025 [3][31][32]