债市情绪面周报（7月第3周）：债市回调，但情绪依然乐观-20250721

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "固收周报 - 债市回调，但情绪依然乐观 —— 债市情绪面周报（7 月第 3 周）" [1] - Report Type: Fixed Income Weekly Report [10][16][28] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [3] Group 2: Core Views - Current bond market situation: Sellers are bullish, while buyers expect a sideways trend. Recent anti - involution and consumption policies, along with the strength of the infrastructure sector, have led to a weak performance in the bond market. After the major tax period, the capital market is generally stable, with a slight increase in interest rates [3]. - Outlook for the future: The probability of unexpected incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July is low. The market still expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading. There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff situation in August. It is expected that the fundamental situation in the second half of the year will not be negative for the bond market. At the micro - level, as large banks increase their net purchases of certificates of deposit and short - term treasury bonds, the steepening of the yield curve may continue. The bond market has been sideways for three months, and the use of various investment strategies by investors is quite saturated, with high market congestion, so the probability of continued sideways movement is high [3]. - Market sentiment: Nearly 60% of fixed - income sellers are still bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared to last week. Fixed - income buyers' views are generally neutral to bullish, and the sentiment index has remained unchanged for two weeks [3][4]. Group 3: Seller and Buyer Market 3.1 Seller Market - Sentiment index: The weighted sentiment index is 0.37, and the unweighted index is 0.54, down 0.1 from last week. 15 institutions are bullish, 10 are neutral, and 1 are bearish [11]. - Bullish institutions (58%): Key factors include lack of support on the commodity demand side, reduced sensitivity of the bond market to equities, and stable capital operation after the tax period [11]. - Neutral institutions (38%): Key factors include the neutral impact of the unfreezing of pledged bonds on the bond market, resilient economic data, and accelerated issuance of local government bonds in the future [11]. - Bearish institutions (4%): Key factors include that the unfreezing of pledged bonds does not mean the central bank will restart bond purchases, and the stock - bond ratio leads to an increase in bond market interest rates [11]. 3.2 Buyer Market - Sentiment index: The sentiment index is 0.13, remaining unchanged from last week. 5 institutions are bullish, and 13 are neutral [12]. - Bullish institutions (28%): Key factors include the resonance of slowing nominal GDP growth and monetary easing, average economic data, a friendly central bank attitude, and increased fiscal fund investment [12]. - Neutral institutions (72%): Key factors include that the impact of the tax period on the capital market has not completely ended, the stock - bond跷跷板 effect still exists, good production, investment, and export data, possible improvement in Sino - US relations, uncertainties in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, and the need for substantial news to break the deadlock [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Segments 4.1 Credit Bonds - Market trends: Financial management funds are entering the market, and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is expanding. The spread is expected to compress slightly due to the entry of financial management funds and the support from the central bank for science and technology innovation bonds [19][20]. 4.2 Convertible Bonds - Market view: Institutions are generally bullish this week. All 8 institutions hold a bullish attitude, supported by short - term supply - demand issues, the allocation demand of fixed - income + institutions, the urgency of conversion near maturity, and clause games [22]. Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 5.1 Futures Trading - Price: As of July 18, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.43 yuan, 105.99 yuan, 108.79 yuan, and 120.46 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.15 yuan from last Friday [24]. - Open interest: The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 1753, 4914, 5152, and 3403 hands respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume: From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 170.93 billion yuan, 117.46 billion yuan, 106.42 billion yuan, and 128.95 billion yuan respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume to open interest ratio: The trading volume to open interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 0.07, 0.07, 0.04, and 0.09 respectively compared to last Friday [25]. 5.2 Spot Bond Trading - Turnover rate: The turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds all decreased. On July 18, the turnover rates were 2.86%, 0.82%, and 5.14% respectively, down 3.17pct, 0.15pct, and 0.44pct from last week [32][43]. 5.3 Basis Trading - Basis: The basis of TS and T main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 0.003 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.003 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan from last Friday [41]. - Net basis: The net basis of TF and TL main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the net basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were - 0.01 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.05 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, - 0.002 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and - 0.08 yuan from last Friday [42][45]. - IRR: The IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends. As of July 18, the IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.56%, 1.65%, 1.37%, and 1.71% respectively, with changes of - 0.02%, +0.06%, - 0.39%, and +0.36% from last Friday [45]. 5.4 Spread Trading - Inter - delivery spread: The inter - delivery spread of T contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.07 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, and 0.18 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.03 yuan, +0.05 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and +0 yuan from last Friday [52]. - Inter - product spread: Except for the 3T - TL contract, the inter - product spreads of other main contracts widened. As of July 18, 2TS - TF, 2TF - T, 4TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.86 yuan, 103.20 yuan, 300.93 yuan, and 205.90 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, +0.09 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan from last Friday [53].