美元债双周报（25年第29周）：债券南向通扩容落地，中资美元债迎配置窗口-20250721

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The expansion of the "Bond Connect" southbound channel will provide more overseas asset allocation opportunities for mainland non-bank financial institutions, alleviating the supply tightness of quality assets in the domestic market and promoting reasonable capital flow [1]. - The U.S. inflation data for June showed a year-on-year increase to 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI rose to 2.9%, indicating controlled inflation but potential short-term increases if tariffs are raised [2]. - The derivatives market maintains expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, with a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points anticipated by year-end [3]. - The report suggests that the current long-end U.S. Treasury yields are rising, reflecting market concerns about future inflation and fiscal deficits, while the expansion of the southbound bond market will enhance liquidity for Chinese dollar bonds and Hong Kong dollar bonds [4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomics and Liquidity - The report highlights the controlled inflation environment in the U.S., with CPI expected to rise to 3.0%-3.5% in the short term if tariffs increase [2]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, indicating market concerns about inflation and fiscal policy [3]. Overseas Dollar Bonds - The expansion of the "Bond Connect" southbound channel is expected to create structural opportunities for dollar bond allocations, particularly benefiting Chinese dollar bonds and Hong Kong dollar bonds [4]. Chinese Dollar Bonds - The report notes that recent rating actions by international agencies included 11 adjustments for Chinese dollar bond issuers, with three upgrades and five downgrades [93].