利率债周报：上周债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线陡峭化下移-20250721

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a favorable bias, and the yield curve shifted downward in a steepening manner. Although the trade, financial, and macroeconomic data for June were generally positive, the weak indicators on the demand - side such as real estate, investment, and consumption limited the negative impact on the bond market. The central bank increased its support during the tax - payment period, leading the money market to turn from tight to loose. The short - end bond yields declined and transmitted to the long - end, resulting in a slight decline in long - end yields [1]. - This week (the week of July 21), the bond market is expected to continue its favorable oscillation. As it enters an economic data vacuum period and the market becomes less sensitive to fundamentals and the stock market, it may focus on the money market and monetary policy signals. With the central bank's clear intention to support the money market, the money market is expected to remain loose after the tax - payment period, driving short - end yields down further and transmitting to the long - end [1]. Group 3: Market Review Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range, and long - bond yields declined slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.02% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01bp, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2.12bp compared to the previous Friday, with the term spread widening significantly [3]. - On July 14, the bond market was weak in the morning due to the tightening money market and rising stock market, but recovered slightly in the afternoon. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.73bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.08% [3]. - On July 15, the bond market strengthened as the weak demand - side indicators in June's economic data, the central bank's over - renewal of outright reverse repurchases, and the falling stock market. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally decreased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropping 1.69bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rising 0.18% [3]. - On July 16, the bond market oscillated within a narrow range. Short - end yields declined due to eased money - market pressure, while medium - and long - end yields rose due to continuous government bond supply. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds increased, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.60bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract falling 0.05% [3]. - On July 17, the bond market oscillated strongly. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.13bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts rising 0.02% [3]. - On July 18, the bond market continued to oscillate. The short - end performed strongly and the long - end weakly due to the central bank's solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repurchases. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.22bp, and most 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell 0.08% [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 85 interest - rate bonds were issued, 15 more than the previous week. The issuance volume was 656.5 billion yuan, 33.5 billion less than the previous week, and the net financing was 143.3 billion yuan, 319.1 billion less than the previous week. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. Five Treasury bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.24 times; 20 policy - bank bonds with an average of 4.00 times; and 60 local government bonds with an average of 26.47 times [12]. Group 4: Important Events - In June, the export growth rate rebounded unexpectedly. The export value in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than in May. The decline in exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points. The import value increased by 1.1% year - on - year, 4.5 percentage points faster than in May. The decline in imports from the US narrowed by 2.6 percentage points [13]. - The financial data in June was strong. New RMB loans in June reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion year - on - year. The new social financing scale was 4.1993 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion year - on - year. At the end of June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month, and M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous month [13]. - The macroeconomic growth momentum in the first half of the year was relatively strong. The GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first half increased by 5.3% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the whole of 2024. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 6.4%. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in June was 4.8%, and the cumulative increase in the first half was 5.0%. The fixed - asset investment from January to June increased by 2.8% year - on - year [14]. Group 5: Real Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side increased last week, including blast furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt unit operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and daily pig iron output. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall [15]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated slightly upward, while most commodity prices fell, including crude oil and copper prices, and the rebar price decreased slightly [15]. Group 6: Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net injection of 1.2011 trillion yuan into the open market last week [25]. - Last week, R007 declined slightly, and DR007 increased. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward [26].