华菱钢铁分析师会议-20250721

Group 1: General Information - The research was conducted on Valin Steel in the steel industry on July 16, 2025, with participation from institutions like Changjiang Securities and Southern Fund [1][2][9] - The listed company's reception staff included Yang Xianghong, Liu Xiaofei, and Wang Yin [9] - The detailed research institutions and their relevant personnel are listed, with Changjiang Securities sending Zhao Chao and Southern Fund sending multiple people such as Lei Jiayuan [10] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The steel industry is in the bottom - range of a 7 - 10 - year cycle since mid - 2022, but there are signs of stabilization. From January to May this year, the loss - making ratio of large and medium - sized steel enterprises was 26.14%, with the loss - making ratio narrowing year - on - year and a slight profit recovery [15] - Domestic steel demand will decline slowly in the long term without a cliff - like drop. There are still structural opportunities, with weak real - estate demand but relatively stable manufacturing demand and growth opportunities in sectors like shipbuilding, wind power, silicon steel, and new - energy vehicles [15] - The supply of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal has increased, leading to a lower price center. For example, the purchase cost of coking coal for key steel enterprises decreased by 32% in the first half of this year [15] - The steel industry order is expected to improve. The industry has entered a stage of stock optimization and减量 development, and the government has emphasized the regulation of crude steel production. The "anti - involution" initiative is a long - term mechanism for the industry [15][16] - Ultra - low emission transformation is a short - term policy tool for industry clearance, and about 80% of the production capacity is expected to complete the transformation by the end of the year. The "Steel Industry Specification Conditions (2025 Edition)" will promote industry optimization [16] Group 3: Homogeneous Competition - Homogeneous competition in the steel industry has led to the industry's global competitiveness. However, the transformation from a general steel enterprise to a high - quality special steel producer faces systematic thresholds in technology, talent, management, and systems [17] - High - end competition is a long and difficult road, and the transformation cycle usually takes about 20 years. Companies should focus on building core products and technologies to maintain competitiveness [17][18] Group 4: VAMA Company - VAMA focuses on the high - end automotive steel market in China, with a rich product matrix including advanced high - strength steel and ultra - high - strength steel. It has established a competitive advantage in the automotive safety structural parts segment [18][19] - It has responded to industry requirements with multi - part integration solutions and has seen an increase in sales to new - energy vehicle manufacturers. Its Phase I and II projects are almost at full production, and sales are increasing year - on - year [19][20] - The "anti - involution" in the automotive industry is beneficial to VAMA's cash flow and capital turnover. Most of its transactions are on a prepaid basis [20] - In 2025, Ansteel Mittal plans to introduce 24 advanced steel grades to VAMA, with 6 making substantial progress. VAMA's Phase III project is in the feasibility study stage, planning to introduce JVD technology and a green development path [21] - Ansteel Mittal is considering setting up a global automotive steel R & D center in China to support VAMA's development [21][22] - VAMA's automotive plate patent products are priced semi - annually and negotiated one - on - one with customers, with a price adjustment mechanism in case of market changes. The hot - rolled substrate is priced monthly [25] - VAMA's Usibor 1500 is protected by many patents, and it is also protected by other patents from Ansteel Mittal in China [26][27] Group 5: Company Performance and Strategy - Valin Steel's profit in 2024 was affected by short - term factors such as the transition of the raw material policy, equipment maintenance, and short - term tax issues, which have now been resolved [25] - The company has not issued a semi - annual performance forecast because it did not meet the requirements. Since the second quarter, its downstream demand has been stable, and orders are sufficient [25] - The company's R & D investment includes various aspects such as daily R & D expenses, technology acquisition, and small - batch trial production costs. High R & D investment is necessary for the company's transformation and competitiveness [28][29] - Xintai Life Insurance's stake - holding in the company is due to its optimistic view of the company's long - term prospects and investment value. The company welcomes long - term capital [29] - In 2025, the company's new capital expenditure is expected to be 5.467 billion yuan, with 40% - 50% for ultra - low emission transformation. After 2026, the environmental protection capital expenditure is expected to decrease, and the dividend ratio may increase [30]