Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of most domestic futures contracts closed higher on July 21, with some showing significant increases and others experiencing declines. The market is influenced by various factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical situations, and macro - policies [7]. - Different commodities have different price trends. For example, coking coal may be over - bought, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, copper will fluctuate mainly with short - term strength, and lithium carbonate may correct after the sentiment stabilizes [3][5][10][12]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - The price opened high and closed high, rising nearly 8% on the day. The spot price increased, and imports in June rose by 172.15 million tons month - on - month. The market is active, but there are signs of over - buying due to sentiment [3]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract closed down 0.47%. Supply is strong, but concerns about US weather and bio - fuel policies may drive up prices in the future, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Copper - The price opened high and trended strongly, rising nearly 2%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly with short - term strength [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and rose nearly 3%. Although the fundamentals have not fully reversed, the sentiment has improved. The price rebound is sentiment - driven and may correct later [11][12]. Crude Oil - Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but many factors still need to be monitored. The market has reflected OPEC +'s accelerated production increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and considering the seasonal factors and price trends of crude oil, it is recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. PP - The downstream demand is weak, the supply is increasing, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [16]. Plastic - The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [18]. PVC - The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and considering the macro - policies, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy at low prices or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [19][20]. Bean Meal - The price rose slightly, but the increase is limited due to the loose supply. The trade situation may improve, which is beneficial to the market sentiment [21]. Rebar - The price rose 2.15%. There is a short - term callback risk, but considering the demand increase from the project, it is recommended to go long lightly at 3220 yuan [22][23]. Hot Rolled Coil - The price rose 2.20%. The demand is expected to increase in the long - term, and it is recommended to trade according to different price levels [24]. Urea - The price opened higher and trended strongly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of correction [26].
冠通每日交易策略-20250721
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-21 12:18